Iran, P5+1 clinch historic deal

A defining moment in contemporary geopolitics was made on July 14, with the P5+1 countries and Iran reaching the much-awaited deal to constrain Iran’s nuclear programme, in return for lifting sanctions on Tehran. Hailing the deal, Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif described the deal as a ‘win-win’ solution but not perfect. “I believe this is a historic moment. We are reaching an agreement that is not perfect for anybody but is what we could accomplish. Today could have been the end of hope, but now we are starting a new chapter of hope,” he underlined.
The deal is expected to finally end Iran’s isolation in the world and could mark the return of a normal Tehran in the global arena. This would not only improve Iran’s relations with the West, but would also set the stage for acceleration of Iran’s relations with BRICS countries, including Brazil, Russia, India and China.
The watershed moment would also ensure a place in history for both President Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani for making this historic deal. The deal is expected to remap contours of the Middle East geopolitics and remove an ever-present danger to world security.

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India-US defence ties flying high: Maritime patrol aircraft on way

In an increasingly fragile and volatile neighbourhood, India is all set to upgrade its arsenal with a host of new high-tech acquisitions. This also comes at a time when the United States is all set to overtake Russia, Israel and France as India’s largest arms supplier with deals worth $10 billion inked since 2007. With Pakistan and China inking some major deals in the recent past, this acceleration in defence relationship with the US is set to boost the modernization of India’s armed forces. It would also help India strengthen its position with volatility increasing in the neighbourhood.
China Factor
One of the major acquisitions is going to be the deal of $1 billion for four P 8I planes that would be used for maritime patrol. This comes in the backdrop of China strengthening its presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as a part of its Maritime Silk Road strategy. With recent reports of Chinese submarines docking in Karachi lurking past Indian waters, it has raised alarm bells in the security establishment at New Delhi.
Pentagon and South Block are also set to begin negotiations in the next few days over the proposed $770 million deal for M-777 ultra-light howitzers under which the bulk of 145 artillery guns to be acquired in a government to government deal, will be made in India. This is also in sync with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Make in India’ initiative, which is expected to spur indigenization of the country’s defence sector.

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India’s ties with its ‘far off’ neighbour, Myanmar

Last month, reports on cross-border operation against Northeast insurgents by Indian armed forces flooded TV screens and newspaper headlines. This again reminded of the presence of a neighbour that is often missing in our public discourse. The debate that followed in media on whether the government’s ‘political messaging’ was right or wrong kept the issue alive and provided more coverage on Myanmar’s importance to India.

Whatever that means in terms of sustaining our interest on Myanmar, there is no denying that Myanmar’s presence in our public imagination has been sporadic. The country emerges as a neighbour only when a big event related to the country takes place –– a high-level visit, a natural calamity, a major uprising, and the latest to be added to such rarities is cross-border operation.

As before, this time too, Myanmar soon dissipated into the air after a couple of weeks of intense focus. We are back to the reality of having a ‘far off’ neighbour. Be that as it may, the India-Myanmar bilateral relations at the governmental level have expanded over the years and there has been deepening of mutual trust between political and defence establishments of the two countries.

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India, Turkmenistan decide to fast-track TAPI, sign defence pact

India and Turkmenistan, the energy-rich Central Asian nation, have decided to fast-track the implementation of the long discussed TAPI pipeline, which is poised to have a transformational impact on economic relations between the two countries as well as the region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first Indian leader to visit Turkmenistan after a gap of two decades as he touched down in the capital Ashgabat on July 10. P.V Narasimha Rao was the last Indian prime minister to visit Turkmenistan.

Energising Ties

Prime Minister Modi and President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov held wide-ranging talks, which have energised bilateral ties across the spectrum. The showpiece outcome held at Ashgabat on July 11 was clearly the decision by the two sides to move ahead with the TAPI project, along with plans to finalize the consortium leader. “The Leaders reaffirmed their strong commitment towards timely implementation of this strategic project for the common benefit of peoples of the four countries and noted that the selection of the Consortium Leader for the project, to be finalized by 1 September 2015, would mark a crucial step in the early implementation of the project,” said the joint statement.

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10 years later, India gets inside SCO tent as member

Ending years of vacillation, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation took a major step forward by agreeing to include India, the world’s largest democracy and Asia’s third largest economy, into the Eurasian grouping. The SCO’s 14thsummit in the Russian city of Ufa also decided to elevate Pakistan, India’s nuclear-armed neighbor, from observer to full membership.

The membership in the SCO is set to bolster India’s efforts to expand and consolidate strategic and economic ties with the energy-rich region. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it was a defining moment in his ongoing eight-day trip to Russia and Central Asian states.

Speaking at the plenary of the SCO, Mr Modi expressed thanks to SCO members and outlined the importance of the grouping to New Delhi. “I convey our deep sense of gratitude to the members of SCO for accepting India as a full member,” he said. He also spoke about the natural linkages of history and said this move would help promote peace and prosperity in the region, often referred to as the pivot of human history.

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India, Pakistan unveil 5-point agenda to improve ties, focus on terror

Terrorism and fast-tracking the trial of the 26/11 Mumbai mayhem accused predictably dominated the talks between the prime ministers of India and Pakistan, the first positive meeting between them after more than a year.
Belying the undercurrents of tensions that permeate India-Pakistan relations, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistani counterpart shook hands, smiled and posed before hordes of paparazzi in the Russian city of Ufa. The official spin coming out of the much-hyped meeting was that it was held in a cordial atmosphere.
For a change, the meeting was more than just a photo-op meant for the international community which is always concerned about the relations between the two nuclear-armed rivals. The statement read out by foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan conjured up a positive picture of the way forward in a conflicted relationship. “They agreed that India and Pakistan have a collective responsibility to ensure peace and promote development. To do so, they are prepared to discuss all outstanding issues,” they said. “Both leaders condemned terrorism in all its forms and agreed to cooperate with each other to eliminate this menace from South Asia,” they added.
The meeting seemed to have paved for accelerated engagement between the two countries, with Mr Modi accepting the invitation of Mr Sharif to visit Islamabad for the SAARC summit in 2016.

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Ufa summit: BRICS leaders walk the talk, New Development Bank to lend by 2016

Reinforcing their commitment to remapping the global financial landscape, the leaders of the BRICS group of emerging powers declared operationalized their two signature initiatives the New Development Bank (NDB) and Contingent Reserve Agreement(CRA), saying these institutions will act as a global safety net amid fragile economic recovery. “We welcome the substantive progress that was made since the Fortaleza Summit on 15 July 2014 during the Brazilian BRICS Chairmanship, especially the establishment of BRICS financial institutions: the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Contingent Reserves Arrangement (CRA). The Ufa Summit marks their entry into force,” said the Ufa Declaration. Amid fragile global recovery, the BRICS also formally adopted strategic economic partnership which will upscale trade and investment among emerging economies and positioned them as the future hub of economic growth.
The 7th BRICS summit has imparted a big push to the ongoing project of recasting the global financial system and underscored the centrality of emerging powers in this process.

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India-Pakistan thaw? Modi, Sharif to talk in Russia about talks

It’s official! Ending feverish speculation over the last few days, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif on the sidelines of the SCO summit in the Russian city of Ufa on July 10.
The last time the leaders of the two countries held talks was during the visit of Nawaz Sharif to New Delhi to attend the inauguration of the Modi government. At that time, they spoke about ushering in a new chapter in bilateral ties but those hopes were belied when Pakistan’s High Commissioner invited Kashmiri separatist leaders, which was immediately denounced by New Delhi and cited as the reason for cancelling the talks between the foreign secretaries in August last year.
Finally, Prime Minister Modi’s telephone call to Mr Sharif to greet him before the holy month of Ramzan broke the ice, fueling speculation about a possible meeting in Ufa. The agenda for talks is not clear, but it is expected to focus on exploring possibilities for revival of limited dialogue between the two countries. Mr Sharif is expected to invite Mr Modi to Islamabad for the 19th SAARC summit his country will hold in 2016.

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India-China ties: Lakhvi ghost shadows Modi-Xi talks, but focus on bright new future

The ghost of 26/11 mastermind Zaki-ur-RehmanLakhvi hung in the winter air in Ufa as Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the twin summits, a meeting that was marked by much bonhomie despite the discordant note struck by Beijing over the Lakhvi issue.

Significantly, this was the fifth meeting between the two leaders in a year, bilaterally and on the margins of various multilateral summits, which underlines a new phase of intense and accelerated engagement between the two Asian giants, which are often viewed through the Western prism of rivalry and competition.

The meeting saw Mr Modi fondly reminiscing about his visit to Xian, China’s fabled city of Terracotta Warriors and home province of the Chinese president, in May this year, and his wide-ranging talks with the Chinese leader on the future trajectory of relations between the two Asian powers.

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