India and the World

The Trump Anxiety Index: Why India needn’t worry

- by Manish Chand

The spectacular headline-hogging victory of billionaire tycoon and reality TV star Donald Trump, who took charge as the 45th president of the US on January 20, has unsettled the global consensus about America’s leadership and position in a conflicted and mutating world order.
Nearly all parts of the world, impacted by the US’ policies directly or indirectly, are speculating feverishly about the ramifications of the Trump presidency. The dominant sentiments are that of anxiety, befuddlement, uncertainty and unpredictability. These disparate worries and apprehensions can be coalesced and crystallised in the Trump Anxiety Index (TIA), which will rise and decrease in proportion to the policy and postures his presidency will adopt towards major cross-cutting issues.
The questions are proliferating by the day, but the Trump anxiety is more pronounced in some countries and regions of the world. On a scale of 1 to 10 on Trump Anxiety Index, China, Mexico and Pakistan will score high, maybe 7-8. By contrast, India scores low, maybe 3-4.
Why India is not so much worried about the Trump presidency? The answer to this all-important question is not all that esoteric. While there is some speculation about a possible reset in India-US relations in some areas, the picture is largely positive and optimistic, and it won’t be an exaggeration to say that there will be more continuity than disruption and potential subversion.
Looking ahead, the picture for India-US relations is largely optimistic, albeit the road ahead is fraught with some challenges and imponderables. Both George Bush Junior and President Obama had raised the bar for what the latter has called “the defining partnership of the 21st century,” and it is now up to President Trump to seize the initiative and leave his indelible imprimatur on this important relationship. Trump’s dream of Making America Again should blend with continued support for India’s rise, the ongoing project of making India great again. The hesitations of history, as PM Modi famously said, are well behind us, and it’s time for the world’s largest democracies to compose a new symphony amid challenges, uncertainty and free-floating anxiety. Read more…

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Why India is wary of CPEC & OBOR: It’s sovereignty issue

- by Manish Chand

The China challenge or the China threat emerged as a leitmotif in a high-profile international conference in New Delhi, with India being upfront about its political differences with Beijing and asking the latter to respect India’s sovereignty in the course of building the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
India, however, took care to eschew a negative adversarial construct of India-China relations, with Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar making it clear that in New Delhi’s assessment, the rise of India and China can be “mutually supportive.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on his part, outlined briefly a template of harmonious India-China relations, saying “respect and sensitivity for each other’s core interests” holds the key.
“China is very sensitive on matters concerning its sovereignty. We expect they will respect other people’s sovereignty,” said Mr Jaishankar at the second edition of Raisina Dialogue, co-organised by India’s Ministry of External Affairs and Observer Research Foundation.

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Vietnam wants India to play a more active role in Southeast Asia: Envoy

- by India Writes Network

It’s a milestone year in India-Vietnam relations as the two strategic partners celebrate the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. In this wide-ranging interview with Manish Chand, Editor-in-Chief, India Writes Network, Vietnam’s ambassador to India Ton Sinh Thanh outlines a vibrant picture of the trajectory of this crucial relationship and underlines the need for a more active role by India in Southeast Asia and the extended region. The envoy also underscored that the burgeoning India-Vietnam relations is not targeted at China or any third country and stressed on peaceful resolution of the South China Sea dispute through dialogue.

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Pakistan must shun terror if it wants peace with India: Modi

- by India Writes Network

nveiling a big-picture vision of India’s foreign policy and its organic linkage with the ongoing transformation of the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has underlined his dream of “a thriving well-connected and integrated neighbourhood,” but singled out Pakistan’s use of terror as an obstacle in fructifying this quest.

In an all-encompassing speech on the emergence of “multi-polarity with multilateralism,” as the new normal in the evolving international geopolitical landscape, Mr Modi reminded Pakistan “to walk away from terror if it wants to walk towards dialogue with India.”

“A thriving well-connected and integrated neighbourhood is my dream,” said Mr Modi at the inaugural session of the second edition of Raisina Dialogue, a signature foreign policy conference organised by Ministry of External Affairs, in collaboration with Observer Research Foundation.

“My vision for our neighbourhood puts a premium on peaceful and harmonious ties with entire South Asia. That vision had led me to invite leaders of all SAARC nations, including Pakistan, for my swearing in,” he said. “For this vision, I had also travelled to Lahore. But, India alone cannot walk the path of peace,” he said. “It also has to be Pakistan’s journey to make. Pakistan must walk away from terror if it wants to walk towards dialogue with India.”

Mr Modi’s expose of Pakistan in front of an audience, which also comprised ministers and experts from over 60 countries, was an extension of his diplomatic campaign to isolate Pakistan in the aftermath of the terror attacks in Uri and Pathankot last year.

Mr Modi, however, struck a more nuanced position on India’s relations with China, which remain conflicted and marred by differences over a host of issues, including Beijing’s continuing opposition to India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

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Trump signalling: High on India, tough on China

- by Manish Chand

Barely a week before Donald Trump is sworn in as president of the US, there are reassuring signals that while the India-US relations will be scaled up, the incoming administration will be tough on China, creating a new balancing game in the crucial Asia-Pacific region.
Ahead of his Senate confirmation hearing, Gen (retd) James Mattis, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Defence Secretary, has identified building stronger ties with India as of “utmost importance.” Gen. Mattis underlined that if confirmed, he would identify areas where India and the US could further bolster their defence ties. It’s a clear signal from the incoming administration that the transformation of the India-US relationship accomplished during the Obama administration, which culminated in the elevation of India as US’ Major Defence Partner, will not only continue apace, but will scale new frontiers in months to come.
Mattis’ remarks should allay apprehensions of those who felt that the Trump administration will withdraw from an activist role in security of the Asia-Pacific region, leaving the field wide open for China, the region’s powerhouse, to set the agenda. President-elect Trump has already rattled Beijing by his controversial telephone call to Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-we, indicating that it won’t be business as usual with China unless the latter is more sensitive and accommodative of the US concerns. If the US were to revise its One China policy, the US-China relations are set to hurtle downhill.
What it all adds up to is that contrary to speculation in some sections, the Trump administration will broadly pursue a recalibrated balancing strategy in Asia-Pacific by continuing to bolster ties with India and Japan while relating to China in a tough no-nonsense manner. These remarks are sure to be resented by the powers-that-be in Beijing which has often accused Washington of following an insidious containment strategy, in league with New Delhi and Tokyo.

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Manmohan Singh was accidental finance minister, Narasimha Rao led 1991 reforms and foreign policy reset: Sanjaya Baru

- by India Writes Network

Who was the architect of India’s path-breaking economic reforms of 1991? No prize for guessing it? Think again, it’s time to get it right! In this wide-ranging conversation with Manish Chand, Editor-in-Chief of India Writes Network, Dr Baru, a former media advisor to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and a veteran journalist, speaks about defining events of 1991, the pivotal year in not just India’s economic journey, but also in the country’s politics and foreign policy, and the crucial role of Narasimha Rao in shaping outcomes conducive to India’s national interests. In the realm of foreign policy, Dr Baru outlines defining steps taken by Narasimha Rao in response to emerging global power shifts, including the launch of Look East policy, resetting relations with the US and China and the outreach to Israel. Commenting on the ongoing political churn in India, the author says that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2004 election victory has brought a quarter century of accidental prime ministers in the country to an end, but he needs a second term to leave a lasting legacy. Excerpts from the interview) – Read more….

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Modi targets worshippers of black money, seeks Indian diaspora’s support

- by India Writes Network

Exhorting the Indian diaspora to play a more proactive role in transforming India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought their support in his battle against corruption and black money as he launched a frontal assault against the “worshippers” of black money.
The biennial convention of the well-heeled Indian diaspora in India’s IT hub Bangalore on January 8 saw a spirited address by Mr Modi in which he robustly defended his controversial move of demonetisation and unveiled his plans for national resurgence.
“It is unfortunate that some political worshippers (rajnaitik poojari) of black money are calling our efforts anti-people,” he said in his address at the 14th edition of Pravasi Bharatiya Divas (PBD).
“…You might have noticed and heard that we have taken up a big fight against black money. Black money and corruption are making our polity, society and administration hollow gradually,” he said while he thanked the overseas Indian community for their support.
Engaging the over 30 million-strong Indian diaspora has acquired an added salience in the foreign policy and development agenda of the Modi government, which is underpinned by his belief in converting brain drain into brain gain.

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Pakistan’s ‘spy’ gimmick portends another bleak year for India-Pakistan ties

- by Shweta Aggarwal

The India-Pakistan relations, which plunged to a new low in the aftermath of the 2016 terror strikes allegedly masterminded by Pakistan-based terrorists, look set to continue in the mode of mutual recriminations and distrust in 2017, with hardly any possibility of a thaw in the near term. Islamabad’s latest gambit to internationalise the issue of alleged Indian spy Kulbhushan Jadhav by seeking to present a dossier before the UN on the alleged terrorist activities of Jadhav portends another bleak year for the severely challenged India-Pakistan relations.
Typical of Pakistan’s posturing, double-speak and grandstanding, Islamabad appears to be in no mood to prosecute Pakistan-based terrorists involved in the Pathankot and Uri terror attacks in India in 2016. Instead, in a latest salvo, Pakistan has claimed it’s a direct victim of Indian “state-sponsored terrorism” and claimed that Jadhav’s activities were aimed at destabilising Pakistan and slaughtering Pakistani nationals. “With such duplicitous behaviour and blood on its hands, India has little credibility on counter-terrorism,” said the spokesperson of Pakistan’s Foreign Office.
With Pakistan in denial, the Modi government is set to be more assertive on cross-border terrorism. The political dynamics involved in a series of state elections to be held this year in India will further complicate the picture as PM Modi and his colleagues in the party are set to flaunt the cross-LOC surgical strikes against Pakistani militants to mobilise nationalist sentiments against the perpetrator of terror. In such a scenario, if there is another terror attack in India in which the Pakistani involvement is established, then the India-Pakistan ties are set to go from bad to worse. It’s early days, but latest indications suggest that 2017 is going to be another grim year for the India-Pakistan relations.

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Trumped! Putin’s ‘smart’ diplomacy fuels hopes for US-Russia reset

- by Manish Chand

Fuelling hopes of a reset in the strained US-Russia relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shunned a tit-for-tat response to the Obama administration’s decision to impose new sanctions and expel 35 Russian diplomats. Mr Putin’s “smart” response has elicited praise from US President-elect Donald Trump, who is expected to ease frosty relations between Moscow and Washington after he takes charge as the leader of the world’s most powerful nation on January 20.
“Great move on delay (by V. Putin),” Mr Trump, known to be an admirer of the Russian leader, said on the microblogging site Twitter on December 30. “I always knew he was very smart!”
Mr Putin’s smart restraint indicates his calculation that the new US President-elect will walk the talk during his campaign speeches about improving the febrile US-Russia relations, leading to an eventual lifting of the onerous US sanctions which have badly mauled the Russian economy.
The improved Russia-US relations bode well for India, which has close strategic relations with both countries. Moscow has reacted with suspicion to what it sees as the growing strategic nexus between New Delhi and Washington. India is betting on better relations between Washington and Moscow as the US sanctions have impacted New Delhi’s efforts to upgrade economic ties with Russia. If the US-Russia thaw becomes real under Trump’s watch, it will be good news for India as it will pave the stage for acceleration of India’s relations with its two foremost partners, US and Russia, without either relationship becoming a zero sum game.

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