As the world dials M for Modi, China’s top leadership has been especially proactive in reaching out to India’s new prime minister, with Chinese President Xi Jinping sending his special envoy Wang Yi to Delhi to firm up an ambitious agenda for expanding the canvas of engagement between Asia’s emerging powers.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, an Asia specialist and a reliable India hand, is expected to carry a direct message from President Xi about Beijing’s strategic intent to sustain the momentum in improving India-China relations. Defying paranoia, bilateral ties showed a remarkable resilience in bouncing back after the Chinese troops’ incursions into Ladakh in the summer of 2013 had severely tested the relationship. In fact, going by Premier Li Keqiang’s warm congratulatory call to Narendra Modi – Li was the first foreign leader to telephone Modi after the new government took charge – the wide-ranging discussions in Delhi are expected to raise the bar for the India-China relationship that had remained mired in circumspection and strategic distrust despite all that feel-good talk.
Setting stage for Modi-Xi talks: BRICS by Brick
The June 8-9 talks will be primarily exploratory in nature as China’s minister will be looking to gauge first-hand the attitude of the BJP government towards relations with China. For India’s foreign minister Sushma Swaraj, the meeting will provide a window into China’s views on critical issues like territorial incursions, cross-border confidence-building measures and economic relationship between Asia’s second and third largest economies. Broadly speaking, the talks will focus on setting a broad roadmap for nurturing and expanding India-China relations amid the Western construction of India and China as rivals. The agenda has been kept under wraps by both sides, but one can expect the two sides to exchange possible dates for the Chinese president’s trip to India, likely in September. The two foreign ministers will also be discussing key issues that will figure in the first bilateral meeting between Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Fortaleza on the sidelines of the BRICS summit of emerging powers in July.
With the BRICS summit barely six weeks away, the two ministers can be expected to discuss issues relating to the BRICS summit like the modalities of the BRICS Development Bank, intra-BRICS trade and joint steps to push reform of international financial institutions.
50 years of Panchsheel
The visit of China’s foreign minister barely within a fortnight of the new Indian government taking charge in Delhi is poised to set a positive tone to the trajectory of India-China relations in days to come. This year has a special significance in the history of bilateral relations as it has been declared the year of friendly exchanges and 2014 will mark the golden jubilee anniversary of the historic Panchsheel agreement, encapsulating the five principles of peaceful co-existence. The Chinese side is keen to invite India’s vice-president/foreign minister to attend the joint celebrations on June 28 in which Myanmar’s representative is also expected to attend.
Leaders: Symmetry and chemistry
Looking at immediate history of India-China relations, 2014 could be the year which could potentially be a game-changer in pushing India-China relations onto a new trajectory, with the summit meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi expected in New Delhi later this year. They haven’t met before, but there is likely to be some chemistry and symmetry in their outlook insofar as both leaders are known to be tough on core sovereignty issues, but flexible and dynamic on advancing economic and developmental interests of their respective countries. The installation of a stable government in Delhi, armed with a comfortable parliamentary majority, is sure to assure the Chinese leadership that the two countries can be a little more daring and imaginative in pushing the envelope of their relationship that continues to be marred by distrust and dim public perception of each other’s position and priorities.
Straight Talk
With two strong leaders firmly ensconced in Delhi and Beijing, it’s also time for some straight talk. The boundary dispute may take some years to resolve, but maintaining peace and tranquillity on the border is eminently achievable. The Chinese side must back assurances with concrete action to ensure that the large-scale incursions like the one that happened in April-May last year should be prevented at all costs as the damage done by such adventurism takes many months, if not years, to mitigate. Secondly, while the economic relationship will continue to burgeon, Beijing must walk the extra mile to reduce the ballooning trade deficit, which at around $40 billion, is simply unsustainable. This is eminently doable, and can be done through tangible steps like granting Indian IT and pharma companies access to the thriving Chinese market. Enhancing investment in India and ploughing in money to bolster India’s infrastructure sector are other viable ways to reduce trade deficit. In the long run, balancing trade is critical to ensuring continued public support for India-China relationship.
Playing Japan and China?
Another issue that requires sustained diplomatic attention on both sides is to have a frank dialogue on their special relationships with other friendly countries. India has grudgingly accepted China’s all weather-friendship with Pakistan, although it remains a source of subterranean tensions in India-China relations. Beijing, too, should shed its paranoia about New Delhi’s burgeoning ties with Tokyo, which is often displayed by some of influential voices in China’s strategic-diplomatic establishment, and accept that India and Japan are going to have all-weather friendship as the network of win-win opportunities in India-Japan relations are far greater, and without any historical baggage.
India Story: The Only Game in Town
Narendra Modi is said to have a soft corner for Japan, but he is not going to pursue either pro-US or pro-Japan foreign policy. Like other leaders before him, Modi’s foreign policy will be resolutely pro-India, and if it means doing business with both Tokyo and Beijing without antagonising either, so be it. As the chief minister of Gujarat, Modi courted investments from both China and Japan to bolster his state’s economic prospects. As the prime minister of India, Beijing can safely expect Modi to stay away from the much-touted game of containment. For there is only one game in town for any leader of India, and that game is the India Story.
(Manish Chand is Editor-in-Chief of India Writes Network, www.indiawrites.org, and a commentator on foreign policy issues. Follow him in twitter@scepticcryptic)
Author Profile
- Manish Chand is Founder-CEO and Editor-in-Chief of India Writes Network (www.indiawrites.org) and India and World, a pioneering magazine focused on international affairs. He is CEO/Director of TGII Media Private Limited, an India-based media, publishing, research and consultancy company.
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