Snowflakes of Time: Poems by Kanwal Sibal
Why write poetry, when there are apparently more weighty and profitable things to do? Diplomat Kanwal Sibal, who has grappled with realpolitick and the chessboard of geopolitical games all his …
Read MoreAuthor: Manish Chand
Transforming Ties: $5 billion boost for India-Bangladesh connect
India and Bangladesh have pitched their burgeoning relations onto a higher trajectory by signing 22 agreements in diverse areas, including two crucial defence agreements and another one on civil nuclear energy cooperation. New Delhi has raised the bar for development and strategic cooperation by unveiling a combined package of $5 billion in new Lines of Credit for Dhaka.
The agreements were signed after wide-ranging talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bangladesh counterpart Sheikh Hasina in the Indian capital on April 8.
India announced a new line of concessional credit of $4.5 billion for implementation of a wide array of projects in Bangladesh and another $500 million LOC for defence procurement by Bangladesh. The new credit package has made Bangladesh the biggest recipient of Lines of Credit for India and positioned New Delhi as a leading development partner of Dhaka.
Defence and security cooperation has received a big boost with Mr Modi announcing a Line of Credit of $500 million to support Bangladesh’s defence related procurement. “In implementing this line of credit, we will be guided by Bangladesh’s needs and priorities,” he stressed.
Pushing the envelope for bilateral relations, Mr Modi outlined new areas of cooperation, including “some high-technology areas, that have a deeper connect with the youth in both our societies.” “These would include working in the fields of Electronics, Information Technology, Cyber Security, Space exploration, Civil Nuclear Energy, and others areas,” he said.
“Racist” spin to attacks on Nigerians: Will it impact India-Africa ties?
India’s burgeoning ties with Africa have come under strain with New Delhi-based African envoys calling for an international inquiry into recent brutal attacks on Nigerian students in a satellite town of the Indian capital. What is disturbing for India is that these attacks, which were the handiwork of some criminals and malcontents, have been described as “racist” and “xenophobic” by the African envoys, indicating that these were expressions of ingrained racist prejudice and hatred.
What was galling for India’s foreign office was that the Dean of African Diplomatic Corps, who issued the blistering statement on the attacks on behalf of other envoys, also alleged that “no sufficient and visible deterrent action” was taken against the perpetrators.”
In a strongly-worded statement, the Dean of African Heads of Mission said that the attacks were “xenophobic and racial” and that Indian authorities had failed to “sufficiently condemn” the attacks or take “visible deterring measures”.
Sadly, these attacks on Africans have come at a time when India is looking to scale up its engagement with Africa across the spectrum. The last three years have seen a marked upswing in India-Africa relations, with India hosting the largest summit with the continent by inviting leaders and representatives of all 54 African countries to the third summit in New Delhi in October 2015. This period has also seen a record number of high-level visits to African countries from India, with the prime minister, president and vice-president visiting over 15 African countries. India-Africa trade has surpassed $70 billion, with more Indian companies looking to invest in the African opportunity.
But, unfortunately, as these attacks on African nationals show, this visible across-the-board acceleration in India-Africa engagement has not translated into an appreciation and understanding of African culture, which has bred distorting stereotypes. Taking a long-range view, it’s necessary for both sides to invest more resources in sensitisation and building mutual popular goodwill if one wants to change the narrative of India-Africa relations on the ground.
Amid China power play in Indian Ocean, India to focus on invigorating IORA
Against the backdrop of the Indian Ocean turning into a theatre of geopolitical competition and increased Chinese forays into this strategic water body, the 21 littoral nations whose shores are washed by this strategically located resource-rich body will hold its first ever summit of leaders in the Indonesian capital Jakarta on March 7.
India, a preeminent Indian Ocean power, has high stakes in moulding the outcomes of the maiden summit of the Indian Ocean Rim Association. The first IORA summit is special as it also marks the 20th anniversary of the grouping of the Indian Ocean littoral states. Ideally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been trying to shape a strategic and cooperative vision of the Indian Ocean Region, should be participating in the summit, but the crucial elections in India’s largest state Uttar Pradesh has kept him away from this important gathering of leaders of the region. Vice-President Hamid Ansari, a veteran diplomat, is expected to unveil India’s agenda and priorities at the summit in Jakarta on March 7.
Blue will be the reigning colour at the IORA leaders’ discussions in Jakarta. If all goes well, the summit should come out with a joint plan for the development of the blue economy which entails sustainable development of ocean resources by avoiding debilitating resource competition. Prime Minister Modi is an ardent proponent of the blue economy.
The increasing strategic salience of the Indian Ocean can’t be overemphasised. China will be the elephant in the room when the leaders of IORA nations meet in Jakarta as most of them have some form of China anxiety.
ASEAN-India at 25: A narrative of optimism
It’s an unfolding narrative of opportunity and optimism as India and the 10–nation ASEAN prepare to celebrate 25 years of dialogue partnership in 2017. A historic milestone for New Delhi’s reinvigorated Act East policy, the commemorative summit will mark 15 years of the summit-level interaction and five years of strategic partnership between India and ASEAN, home to over 1.8 billion people and dynamic growth hubs in the evolving geo-economic landscape of the region. “Shared Values, Common Destiny” – the summit’s theme encapsulates the essence of India’s blossoming relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It is animated by a soaring vision of an Asian century and a commitment to shaping an inclusive regional order.
Announcing the silver jubilee celebrations at the 14th ASEAN-India summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, on September 8, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke eloquently about the promise and potential of this crucial partnership. “The planned commemorative activities are ambitious, just as the promise and potential of our strategic engagement is immense. In India, you would find a ready and reliable partner, willing to march with you in step to fulfil this promise and realise its potential,” PM Modi told the ASEAN leaders.
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India-UAE ties turn strategic-plus, poised for take-off
The relations between India and the United Arab Emirates, the Gulf’s economic powerhouse and home to 2.6 million Indians, are poised for a take-off with the two countries signing a transformative comprehensive strategic partnership agreement and a clutch of pacts straddling diverse areas, ranging from defence, maritime transport and energy to trade, logistics and cyber security.
Underlining the increasing salience of the Gulf region in India’s diplomatic calculus, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the chief guest for the country’s 68th Republic Day celebrations. Sheikh Al Nahyan is only the third leader from the energy-rich region India has hosted for the Republic Day, and signals a marked acceleration in ongoing efforts by New Delhi to shape a greater West Asia policy.
The talks in New Delhi on January 25 were all-encompassing and promises to pack more strategic heft and economic ballast in the burgeoning relationship between India and UAE.
The showpiece outcome was the elevation of India-UAE ties to the level of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), which firmly positions the Gulf’s second largest economy as India’s preeminent partner in the region in both strategic and economic arenas.
On the strategic side, the agreement on defence industry cooperation is significant as it envisages joint manufacturing of high-end weapons systems and transfer of technology.
Taking a long-range view, another key outcome emanating from the talks in New Delhi was to impart a fresh push to the ongoing economic transformation of the India-UAE relationship, with PM Modi identifying the UAE as “an important partner in India’s growth story.”
In a move that will be closely watched in Pakistan, India and the UAE have also renewed their strategic resolve to intensify their cooperation in counter-terrorism and de-radicalisation. Read more…
The Trump Anxiety Index: Why India needn’t worry
The spectacular headline-hogging victory of billionaire tycoon and reality TV star Donald Trump, who took charge as the 45th president of the US on January 20, has unsettled the global consensus about America’s leadership and position in a conflicted and mutating world order.
Nearly all parts of the world, impacted by the US’ policies directly or indirectly, are speculating feverishly about the ramifications of the Trump presidency. The dominant sentiments are that of anxiety, befuddlement, uncertainty and unpredictability. These disparate worries and apprehensions can be coalesced and crystallised in the Trump Anxiety Index (TIA), which will rise and decrease in proportion to the policy and postures his presidency will adopt towards major cross-cutting issues.
The questions are proliferating by the day, but the Trump anxiety is more pronounced in some countries and regions of the world. On a scale of 1 to 10 on Trump Anxiety Index, China, Mexico and Pakistan will score high, maybe 7-8. By contrast, India scores low, maybe 3-4.
Why India is not so much worried about the Trump presidency? The answer to this all-important question is not all that esoteric. While there is some speculation about a possible reset in India-US relations in some areas, the picture is largely positive and optimistic, and it won’t be an exaggeration to say that there will be more continuity than disruption and potential subversion.
Looking ahead, the picture for India-US relations is largely optimistic, albeit the road ahead is fraught with some challenges and imponderables. Both George Bush Junior and President Obama had raised the bar for what the latter has called “the defining partnership of the 21st century,” and it is now up to President Trump to seize the initiative and leave his indelible imprimatur on this important relationship. Trump’s dream of Making America Again should blend with continued support for India’s rise, the ongoing project of making India great again. The hesitations of history, as PM Modi famously said, are well behind us, and it’s time for the world’s largest democracies to compose a new symphony amid challenges, uncertainty and free-floating anxiety. Read more…
Why India is wary of CPEC & OBOR: It’s sovereignty issue
The China challenge or the China threat emerged as a leitmotif in a high-profile international conference in New Delhi, with India being upfront about its political differences with Beijing and asking the latter to respect India’s sovereignty in the course of building the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
India, however, took care to eschew a negative adversarial construct of India-China relations, with Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar making it clear that in New Delhi’s assessment, the rise of India and China can be “mutually supportive.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on his part, outlined briefly a template of harmonious India-China relations, saying “respect and sensitivity for each other’s core interests” holds the key.
“China is very sensitive on matters concerning its sovereignty. We expect they will respect other people’s sovereignty,” said Mr Jaishankar at the second edition of Raisina Dialogue, co-organised by India’s Ministry of External Affairs and Observer Research Foundation.
Trump signalling: High on India, tough on China
Barely a week before Donald Trump is sworn in as president of the US, there are reassuring signals that while the India-US relations will be scaled up, the incoming administration will be tough on China, creating a new balancing game in the crucial Asia-Pacific region.
Ahead of his Senate confirmation hearing, Gen (retd) James Mattis, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Defence Secretary, has identified building stronger ties with India as of “utmost importance.” Gen. Mattis underlined that if confirmed, he would identify areas where India and the US could further bolster their defence ties. It’s a clear signal from the incoming administration that the transformation of the India-US relationship accomplished during the Obama administration, which culminated in the elevation of India as US’ Major Defence Partner, will not only continue apace, but will scale new frontiers in months to come.
Mattis’ remarks should allay apprehensions of those who felt that the Trump administration will withdraw from an activist role in security of the Asia-Pacific region, leaving the field wide open for China, the region’s powerhouse, to set the agenda. President-elect Trump has already rattled Beijing by his controversial telephone call to Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-we, indicating that it won’t be business as usual with China unless the latter is more sensitive and accommodative of the US concerns. If the US were to revise its One China policy, the US-China relations are set to hurtle downhill.
What it all adds up to is that contrary to speculation in some sections, the Trump administration will broadly pursue a recalibrated balancing strategy in Asia-Pacific by continuing to bolster ties with India and Japan while relating to China in a tough no-nonsense manner. These remarks are sure to be resented by the powers-that-be in Beijing which has often accused Washington of following an insidious containment strategy, in league with New Delhi and Tokyo.
Trumped! Putin’s ‘smart’ diplomacy fuels hopes for US-Russia reset
Fuelling hopes of a reset in the strained US-Russia relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shunned a tit-for-tat response to the Obama administration’s decision to impose new sanctions and expel 35 Russian diplomats. Mr Putin’s “smart” response has elicited praise from US President-elect Donald Trump, who is expected to ease frosty relations between Moscow and Washington after he takes charge as the leader of the world’s most powerful nation on January 20.
“Great move on delay (by V. Putin),” Mr Trump, known to be an admirer of the Russian leader, said on the microblogging site Twitter on December 30. “I always knew he was very smart!”
Mr Putin’s smart restraint indicates his calculation that the new US President-elect will walk the talk during his campaign speeches about improving the febrile US-Russia relations, leading to an eventual lifting of the onerous US sanctions which have badly mauled the Russian economy.
The improved Russia-US relations bode well for India, which has close strategic relations with both countries. Moscow has reacted with suspicion to what it sees as the growing strategic nexus between New Delhi and Washington. India is betting on better relations between Washington and Moscow as the US sanctions have impacted New Delhi’s efforts to upgrade economic ties with Russia. If the US-Russia thaw becomes real under Trump’s watch, it will be good news for India as it will pave the stage for acceleration of India’s relations with its two foremost partners, US and Russia, without either relationship becoming a zero sum game.