Author: Manish Chand

ASEAN@50: Why Manila summit matters for India

- by Manish Chand

It’s ASEAN moment in the Philippines capital – sparkling lights, giant Christmas tree and ASEAN emblems splashed all over this bustling metropolis conjure up a festive atmosphere that’s in keeping with the 50th anniversary celebrations of this vibrant grouping of 10 Southeast Asian nations. And Philippines’ maverick leader Roderigo Duterte has launched a veritable charm offensive as he rolls out the red carpet to welcome a host of world leaders, including US President Donald Trump, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, among others, for this defining marker in the history of ASEAN.
For India, the Manila summit will be an opportunity for Prime Minister Modi to underscore New Delhi’s strategic intent to play a bigger role in the region and impart more depth and content to its Act East policy.
On the strategic side, all eyes will be on the message coming out from the ASEAN summit on the South China Sea, where China’s suspected expansionist agenda has renewed anxiety about Beijing’s intentions and the region’s response to it. Ahead of the summit, Mr Duterte has already voiced his concerns and underlined the need for a written code of conduct that will ensure responsible behaviour by China in the disputed water body.
Looking ahead, as they celebrate 25 years of multifarious engagement across the spectrum, India and ASEAN will be looking to map new frontiers and raise the bar for this mutually empowering partnership. The message coming from the Manila summit will have a critical bearing on the future of this economically dynamic region and how it handles differences and power games to focus on the larger dream of realising the potential of an Asian Century.

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Xi Jinping joins Mao pantheon: What it means for China & world

- by Manish Chand

It’s the Xi Jinping Moment as China’s Communist Party elevated and exalted the 64-year-old princeling with the common touch to the pantheon of the party immortals, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, making him the most powerful Chinese leader in decades. On a cold winter morning in Beijing on October 24, the Xi Jinping Thought shone the path to realising the Chinese Dream as the week-long Party Congress concluded by enshrining the 64-year-old leader’s philosophy into the Chinese constitution, and setting him up for a prolonged stay in power, much beyond 2022 when his second term ends.
More than 2,000 delegates gathered in the majestic Great Hall of the People in Beijing’s iconic Tiananmen Square and unanimously voted to incorporate “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in a New Era” in the constitution on the final day of the week-long 19th Party Congress, a twice-a-decade meeting of the party’s ruling oligarchy.
Xi Jinping, who had inspired and enthralled the party elite and the nation with his three-and-a-half hour speech on the opening day of the congress, exuded quiet authority and poise as he spoke about “great strength and vitality,” of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the 21st century.
Xi Jinping Thought will now be on a par with Mao Zedong Thought and Deng Xiaoping Theory as a “guide to action” and revitalisation of the CPC and the Chinese nation. It will be now mandatory learning for Chinese students from primary schools through to universities.
This ceremonial elevation of Xi Jinping in the CPC pantheon will have significant ramifications for the world as it deals with the most powerful Chinese leader in decades, who has his own vision of making China a global power, which could bring him in conflict with other power centres.

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China’s Xi pushes for balanced growth, more open economy

- by Manish Chand

Setting the target for a “moderately prosperous society” and a “fully developed nation”, China’s President Xi Xinping has renewed the focus on the development of socialism with Chinese characteristics and focused on promoting balanced development at the 19th Party Congress of the CPC.
Mr. Xi has been a long- time proponent of a more open and inclusive Chinese economy, often facing flak from neo-Maoists who accuse him of moving away from Chairman Mao’s socialist agends. However, President Xi has been successful in consolidating his hold over the Party and has overseen a steady growth of the Chinese economy.
Laying out his strategy in 14 points that included diverse aspects like national security, elder care and reform, Mr. Xi was firm is declaring that “the party leads everything, everywhere”. A call for greater incentive to investment and serious market-oriented reform of its exchange rate as well as its financial system was made by the Chinese leader, while also emphasizing the authority of the state firms in the market. “Openness brings progress for ourselves, seclusion leaves one behind. China will not close its doors to the world, we will only become more and more open,” he said.
In the global scenario of increased protectionism and isolationist sentiments in the US, China is positioning itself as a major international player, aiding and assisting a host of infrastructural and development projects oversees and leading grand connectivity initiatives like the One Belt One Road. Proclaiming China as the future leader of the developing world, Mr. Xi attacked the pitfalls of the Western-style democracy claiming that “No country alone can handle all the challenges that mankind faces and no country can retreat into self-isolation.” “We have every confidence that we can give full play to the strengths and distinctive features of China’s socialist democracy, and make China’s contribution to the political advancement of mankind… We should not just mechanically copy the political systems of other countries,” he added.

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Why India-EU summit matters: Mapping next steps

- by Manish Chand

Unfazed by Brexit, India and the European Union are set to map the next steps in their mutually enriching and empowering partnership at their 14th summit in New Delhi. The 14th summit is taking place against a mutating geopolitical and geo-economic landscape, marked by uneven global economic growth and the rise of radicalism and alt-right forces in Europe and elsewhere.
In his interaction with EU leaders, including Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, and Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to raise the bar for India-EU partnership in both economic and strategic spheres.
Besides upscaling economic and strategic partnership, the 14th summit could be a milestone in entrenching the EU’s role as a key partner in India’s ongoing nation-building projects. In days to come, one can see enhanced support of the EU for flagship schemes of national resurgence like Smart City, Skill India, Clean Ganga, Digital India and Start-up India. In particular, the EU is set to emerge as one of preferred partners in India’s quest for urban renaissance.
Moving beyond specific deliverables, the 14th summit should culminate in a big picture view of steering this strategic partnership between the vibrant multi-cultural, multi-ethnic societies of India and the European Union. With the liberal global order under attack by alt-right politics and divisive forces, India and the EU can blend their strengths to champion a new narrative for open societies and inclusive globalisation.

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Reality check: China-Pak friendship ‘higher’ than BRICS

- by Manish Chand

The inhospitable weather in Doklam and the ensuing heat of India-China standoff may have compelled China to go along with BRICS on naming Pakistan-based terror outfits in the Xiamen Declaration, but when it comes to friendship with Islamabad, it is forever sweetness and light. Days after the BRICS summit in Xiamen which for the first time named Pakistan based anti-India terror outfits, China has robustly rallied to defence of its “good brother and friend.” In the case of Pakistan, it’s always “one road” for China – a friendship “higher than Himalayas and deeper than oceans.”
The latest remarks by China belie jubilation and hype that followed in India after the BRICS joint declaration in Xiamen included a reference to Pakistan-based terror outfits, including Lashkar e-Taiba and Jaish e-Mohamed. Television divas and strategy gurus had touted the BRICS’ declaration on counter-terrorism as a major success of Indian diplomacy. Given the context and the preceding Doklam standoff, the inclusion of Pakistan-based militant outfits was a breakthrough of sorts and a movement forward, but as the latest messaging from Beijing indicates, it’s time to temper post-Xiamen euphoria and take a reality check.
For now, China seems to have indicated that its all-weather friendship with Pakistan is higher than the Himalayas, and certainly higher than the edifice of BRICS. Read more….

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Modi-Xi meeting: Doklam is history, India, China to focus on future

- by Manish Chand

Putting the Doklam incident firmly behind, India and China have decided to steer their relationship on “an upward trajectory” by enhancing mutual trust and widening the arc of convergence.
Don’t look back, look forward to a brighter shared future – this was the big message coming out from wide-ranging talks between India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Xiamen. The first talks between the two leaders, after the Doklam incident threatened to derail relations and plunge the two Asian giants into a military conflict, lasted for over an hour. The talks firmed up a new big-picture understanding to start anew by managing their differences with mutual respect and sensitivity.
“It was a forward-looking approach. The discussions were constructive and forward-looking – where the relationship is going and will be going,” India’s Foreign Secretary S. Jaishhankar told Indian journalists at Wyndham Grand hotel.
In essence, what emerged from the Xiamen meeting between PM Modi and President Xi was a joint understanding and resolve on how to take this relationship forward.

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Doklam out, BRICS in: Why BRICS deserves a Golden Decade

- by Manish Chand

Doklam is out, BRICS is in. In the picturesque coastal city of Xiamen, better known for its delicious noodles, entrepreneurial drive and pretty beaches, the sound and fury that accompanied the standoff between India and China on the Doklam plateau appeared a distant echo as India and China set differences aside to bolster the edifice of BRICS. The focus was on convergences and looking ahead, rather than nursing grouse and conspiracy theories as China joined hands with India and other BRICS countries to shape the strongest ever BRICS joint declaration on terrorism.
It was a triumph of Indian diplomacy, but it was also a reflection of the pivotal role of BRICS in fighting common threats and promoting regional stability. The 71-paragraph Xiamen Declaration, if implemented even partially, could be a potential game-changer in strengthening the counter-narrative of emerging powers on a host of geopolitical crises and shaping a new global governance architecture that crystallises aspirations of developing countries.
Looking ahead, both PM Modi and President Xi Jinping have spoken eloquently and convincingly about ushering in “another golden decade” for BRICS, but the key to unlocking the potential of that golden decade will lie in rescuing BRICS from Doklam-like conflicts which could derail not just BRICS, but the larger promise of an Asian century. The resolution of the Doklam crisis paved the way for a reasonably successful BRICS summit in Xiamen, but India and China need to make serious and sustained efforts to start anew and build a largely harmonious and future-looking relationship, without glossing over differences. It’s time, therefore, for a reality check.
Moving beyond Doklam, India and China have to, therefore, fashion a new alphabet of BRICS centred on “Business, Regional Integration, Innovation, Culture and Statesmanship.”

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BRICS backs India on terror, targets Pakistan-based LeT and JeM

- by Manish Chand

In a triumph of Indian diplomacy and a sign of an evolving entente with China, BRICS countries have collectively backed India’s concerns over cross-border terrorism, with a BRICS joint declaration naming for the first time Pakistan-based anti-India terror groups, including LeT, JeM and the Haqqani Network.
The leaders of India, China, Brazil, Russia and South Africa held discussions on a wide array of cross-cutting threats in the coastal city of Xiamen. Jointly combating terror figured prominently in the talks.
At the end of the meeting, the BRICS leaders came out with a joint declaration, which addresses India’s concerns over cross-border terrorism.
“We deplore all terrorist attacks worldwide, including attacks in BRICS countries, and condemn terrorism in all its forms and manifestations wherever committed and by whomsoever and stress that there can be no justification whatsoever for any act of terrorism,” the Xiamen Declaration said.
Alluding to the fragile and deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, the declaration said: “We, in this regard, express concern on the security situation in the region and violence caused by the Taliban, ISIL/DAISH, Al-Qaida and its affiliates including Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, TTP and Hizb ut-Tahrir.”
The explicit mention of anti-India terror outfits, supported by Pakistan, in the Xiamen joint declaration is significant as China had opposed the inclusion of these terror organisations in the Goa summit declaration last year.
The inclusion of Pakistan-based terror groups has come as a surprise to analysts and BRICS observers here as Beijing had cautioned that Pakistan’s role in terrorism was not an appropriate subject for the BRICS summit.

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Pakistan shadow on BRICS? Terror high on Xiamen summit agenda

- by Manish Chand

In the picturesque coastal city of Xiamen, better known for its noodles, entrepreneurial drive and touristy beaches, terror is not what you think about, but when the leaders of BRICS countries meet for their 9th annual summit here on September 14, enhancing counter-terror cooperation will be on top of the agenda.
By and large, there is a robust BRICS consensus on collectively dealing with the scourge of terrorism, but Pakistan-origin terrorism continues to be a source of dissonance between India and China. At the last BRICS summit in Goa, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had launched a blistering attack on Pakistan and sought BRICS support in isolating Islamabad for its dubious role in using terror as an instrument of state policy. But he didn’t succeed in getting a reference to Pakistan included in the Goa joint statement, largely due to Beijing’s fierce objections. This time round, China has gone a step further by pre-setting the agenda by making it clear that Pakistan’s role in fostering and sheltering terrorism is not “an appropriate subject appropriate topic to be discussed at BRICS summit.”
Buoyed by Trump’s frontal expose of Pakistan’s role in fomenting terrorism in Afghanistan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to highlight India’s concerns on Pakistan’s role in cross-border terrorism, at the Xiamen summit. But given the all-weather friendship between China and Pakistan, Beijing is unlikely to allow any reference to Pakistan-based terrorism except in general terms about safe havens for terror.
In his speech at the BRICS Business Forum, which opened in Xiamen on September 3, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a holistic approach to fighting terrorism. “I am convinced that as long as we take a holistic approach to fighting terrorism in all its forms, and address both its symptoms and root causes, terrorists will have no place to hide,” he said.

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Beyond Doklam: Modi hopeful of ‘positive’ BRICS summit

- by Manish Chand

The resolution of the Doklam border standoff between India and China appears to have paved the way for a successful BRICS summit in Xiamen, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi stressing that he was looking forward to “productive discussions and positive outcomes that will support the agenda of a stronger BRICS partnership under the chairmanship of China.”
I also look forward to productive discussions and positive outcomes that will support the agenda of a stronger BRICS partnership under the chairmanship of China,” the Indian leader said.
In his message, Mr Modi underscored the importance of BRICS as a force for upholding world peace, a veiled reference to the potential and role of the BRICS grouping as a platform for easing tensions between member countries.
The 9th BRICS summit in Xiamen will mark the beginning of another decade of BRICS, with Chinese President Xi Jinping promising “a golden decade” of BRICS. The Xiamen summit is expected to culminate in a vision statement for consolidation and expansion of the BRICS to entrench it as the most influential forum of emerging economies and South-South cooperation.
Looking ahead, it seems the two emerging countries have decided to compartmentalize their bilateral relations and cooperation in pluralistic and multilateral forums like BRICS. In this regard, PM Modi’s bilateral talks with his Chinese host Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit will be crucial in mapping the way forward for this conflict-prone relationship between Asia’s leading economies.

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