The suspense over who will lead Afghanistan, after a marathon election, will end on July 7 as Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission is set to announce preliminary results from the second round of presidential election.
The results will be announced even as presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah has warned that the pronouncement will lack credibility given the alleged discrepancies and fraud during the June 14 run-off elections.
The preliminary results, which were due on July 2, had to be delayed by the IEC, citing a recount of votes cast at more than 1,900 polling stations in 30 provinces. Mr. Abdullah wants the dates to be pushed further and has demanded that more polling stations be brought under investigation, a request the IEC has rejected.
Abdullah Abdullah has been very vocal that his opponent, Ashraf Ghani, has been supported by senior officials of the election commission to rig votes and stuff ballots. Recently, Mr. Abdullah released records of a telephone conversation in which Ziaulhaq Amarkhil, the country’s chief election officer, was heard encouraging election officials to support Ghani. While the authenticity of the recordings could not be verified, the video forced Amarkhil to resign.
Mr. Abdullah’s persistence seems to be paying off. Recently, a European Union statement expressed that an audit of 1,930 polling centers was not enough to find all frauds. It added: “the number of problematic polling stations could well exceed 6,000 out of a total of 22,828.”
The international community will be monitoring the volatile situation closely.
What it means for India
With the NATO combat troops scheduled to leave by the end of 2014, and as the agreement to let thousands of the US soldiers to stay back remains unsigned, there is mounting global concern about security and stability in Afghanistan. For India, which has been pressing for continued international commitment and the presence of foreign combat troops in Afghanistan, the security situation in that country is a source of considerable anxiety. In the past few years, the Indian embassy in Kabul has been targeted twice by elements of the Taliban and the Indian consulate in Kandhar was besieged by terrorists, with reported close links to Pakistan’s military-ISI establishment.
Recently, India has made the situation in Afghanistan a major issue of discussion in a number of high-profile meetings. US Senator John McCain and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are understood to have discussed the issue in their meeting on July 3. The evolving dynamics in Afghanistan will also figure prominently in between the foreign ministers of India and the US at their strategic dialogue towards the end of the month.
India views Afghanistan as a strategic partner in its efforts to connect India to Central Asia. It has pledged over $2 billion for multifaceted projects that include building roads, dams, schools and other projects of infrastructural importance.
Committing itself to a legitimate government in Kabul, New Delhi recently stated that it would never agree to treat the Afghan government at par with the Taliban.
India is highly concerned about the instability given the election deadlock. New Delhi fears that an instable Afghanistan would be a haven for Pakistan-backed Taliban and could undermine Indian interests and security within Afghanistan and the wider region.
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