China seems poised to deal realistically with a new regime in Delhi, which is likely to be headed by BJP’s Narendra Modi, with Chinese analysts and media projecting that the Modi-led government will be “pragmatic” towards China while adopting a tougher line on complex political issues like the border dispute and Tibet.
This broad template – tough on political issues but flexible on economic engagement – has been reflected in a front-page article in the Global Times, China’s influential daily which is often seen as the mouthpiece of the all-powerful Communist Party of China.
“Narendra Modi, projected to become India’s next prime minister according to multiple exit polls, is expected to present a tougher stance on political disputes but take a more flexible economic policy toward China,” said the daily’s report published on May 14, barely a couple of days before the world comes to know who will rule New Delhi for the next five years.
“Modi, 63, who serves as chief minister of Gujarat in western India, is famed for his pro-business approach, and has made four trips to China to woo Chinese investment,” the Global Times report said.
A week ago, an analyst from the Shanghai Institute for International Studies published an article in the Global Times which contended that the relations between India and China will get closer if Modi were to head the new government in India.
Liu Zongyi, a research fellow of Shanghai Institute for International Studies, blamed the West for trying to create a rift between India and China. “India in the future will chase more strategic independence. The West has adapted to an India with a weak central government in the past decades. It is afraid that a strongman like Russian President Vladimir Putin will make India really strong and build the country into a challenger to the West economically and politically. The US is particularly upset with the enhanced strategic cooperation among China, Russia and India.”
T
he article is remarkable for its strong streak of realism, which shows a marked pragmatism by China in dealing with India amid the West-influenced construction of India and China as rivals. “There are some Western media and observers trying to foment discord between China and India by hyping up nationalist Modi’s aggressive statements on the border issue between the two countries. They underscored the possibility that India will ally with Japan and Vietnam to contain China after Modi becomes the prime minister.”
The article goes on to note that “it has been a policy for India to offset the negative effects of China’s rise by enhancing strategic cooperation with countries around China. It’s unlikely that Modi will change this policy. However, it doesn’t mean he will strengthen the trend.”
“Modi was once a practical businessman. After he got into politics, he established good relations with China. A large number of Chinese enterprises invested in Gujarat, contributing to the economic development of the state. Therefore, ties between China and India may become closer under Modi’s leadership.”
This assessment has been echoed by many Chinese analysts, and offer an insight into the thinking of Beijing as it gears up to do business with a likely Modi regime in New Delhi. “Economic development and improving people’s livelihoods are expected to be high on his agenda once he is elected prime minister. There is the possibility that he will expand Sino-India economic and trade cooperation and seek more Chinese investment,” says Fu Xiaoqiang, a research fellow with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said.
Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow with the Institute of International Relations at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, contended that while closer economic ties between Beijing and New Delhi are expected, but given Modi’s hardline stance against China during his campaign, he could be tougher on the boundary dispute. He was alluding to Modi’s strident assertion during a campaign speech in Arunachal Pradesh in February asking China to shed its “expansionist attitude,” while referring to the border disputes between the two countries. “The BJP has long held a hardline position toward China. Modi will no doubt inherit the party’s stance. He will be tougher against Beijing and use border disputes, the Tibet question and the Dalai Lama to bargain with China,” Hu said.
“The two countries have reached a border defence cooperation agreement (BDCA) last year and both maintained that the disputes should be solved through negotiations,” said the analyst.
Foreign policy issues have not loomed large in his campaign speeches, but Modi, according to aides close to him, is expected to put economic diplomacy at the heart of India’s engagement with China and the world.
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