India and the United States share a robust and multifaceted partnership, deeply rooted in shared democratic values, economic interdependence, and strategic convergence. Over the years, this partnership has evolved into a cornerstone of regional stability and global governance. With the prospect of Donald Trump’s second presidency, questions arise about its trajectory and implications for South Asia and the broader world order.
India and the United States share a robust and multifaceted partnership, deeply rooted in shared democratic values, economic interdependence, and strategic convergence. Over the years, this partnership has evolved into a cornerstone of regional stability and global governance. With the prospect of Donald Trump’s second presidency, questions arise about its trajectory and implications for South Asia and the broader world order.In an exclusive conversation with Manish Chand, CEO, Centre for Global India Insights and India Writes Network, Dr Aparna Pande, Director of the Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia at the Hudson Institute, Washington D.C., shared her analysis of how the second Trump presidency will impact India and South Asia.
From defence and trade to regional dynamics in South Asia, Dr. Pande elaborated on key aspects that could shape bilateral relations and their impact on the Indo-Pacific. Reflecting on anxieties surrounding Trump’s approach to multilateralism and global alliances, she provided insights into how India might navigate its strategic priorities in an evolving world order.
Excerpts from the interview:
Q: President Trump has already announced most of his cabinet members. This probably the most pro-India Cabinet by a US president. Has there been any interaction between the Trump team and India? What do you see as the core priorities of Trump vis-a-vis India?
Several key cabinet nominations include individuals experienced in working with India, many of whom have supported pro-India bills in the U.S. Congress. India is viewed as a critical American partner and potential ally, especially given the Trump presidency’s primary focus: China.
The US’ relations with most countries under President-elect Trump will revolve around addressing China’s economic, technological, and military rise. That said, not all nominations have been announced , so we need to wait and see how the administration’s team and policies take shape.
However, India is one of few countries that has bipartisan support inside the U.S. Every American presidential administration over the past three decades —Republican or Democrat — has worked towards strengthening ties with India.
As for whether this will be the most pro-India presidency, I would argue that the Biden administration has been the most pro-India in decades. Any future administration, including Trump 2.0, will have to match or surpass what President Biden achieved.
Q: Do you think South Asia will be a priority for the Trump administration? The region is experiencing significant political changes, including regime change in Bangladesh and increasing Chinese influence in most South Asian countries.
A: South Asia as a region will not be a primary focus area for the incoming Trump administration. India, however, might be.
President-elect Trump’s priority will remain China, and the US will assess regions and countries based on how they contribute to countering China. South Asia’s strategic relevance will hinge on its relationship with China. China’s influence has grown within South Asia and that is a challenge primarily for India, something it has grappled with for decades. India and the U.S. can work together on helping pushback against Chinese encroachment on the continental landmass of South Asia and also in the Indian Ocean region.
However, if India aspires to be a global power it will first need to become a regional power within South Asia. While the US’ interest in South Asia will remain tangential, India needs to enhance its offerings to its neighbours, whether through developmental assistance, security cooperation, or economic support.
Q: During his first term, Trump was quite outspoken about Pakistan’s role in fomenting terrorism. Can we expect continuity in this approach under Trump 2.0, particularly regarding Pakistan and terrorism?
A: During his first term, then President Trump adopted a dual approach toward Pakistan —criticizing it for terrorism while also meeting with Prime Minister Imran Khan and offering to mediate on the Kashmir dispute.
In his second term, the US is likely to continue pressuring Pakistan to do more on the issue of terrorism, especially since the nominees for NSA, Rep Mike Walz and for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, have long expressed such views during their time in Congress.
Unlike during Trump 1.0, the US no longer has troops in Afghanistan, thereby reducing its reliance on and interest in Pakistan. While Pakistan will always remain a country of concern —particularly because of its nuclear weapons programme and support for terrorism — there is unlikely to be a high level of engagement beyond sanctions or pressure on specific issues. Pakistan’s close security and economic ties with China is likely to also impact how the Trump administration views Pakistan.
However, given President-elect Trump’s unpredictable style of foreign policy, we must also be prepared for him seeking to engage with Pakistan diplomatically, potentially offering mediation again on Kashmir or some other issue.
Q: On Kashmir, do you see any potential activism or interference by Trump 2.0? Could this pose a challenge to India?
A: President-elect Trump’s unpredictability makes it hard to say what he will do. He might choose to raise Kashmir in discussions with Prime Minister Modi or use it as a bargaining chip. However, I do not see this as impacting the strategic trajectory of the India-US relations significantly. India’s stance on Kashmir as a bilateral issue is well-known, and unlikely to change.
Q: Afghanistan is another critical area. The Taliban continues its push for international recognition. What approach Trump will take towards Afghanistan?
A: The Trump administration’s approach to Afghanistan will likely focus on domestic accountability for the 20-year war, possibly leading to hearings on Capitol Hill. If these hearings implicate Pakistan, it could result in increased pressure on Islamabad.
However, beyond that, there is little likelihood of a deep focus on issues like developmental aid or pushing the Taliban on human rights. Afghanistan may also feature tangentially, in the context of the administration’s broader China strategy.
Q: India is set to host the Quad Summit in 2025. Do you think Quad will figure high in Trump’s foreign policy agenda? Will there be a push for securitization of the Quad?
A: Yes, the Quad was revived under Trump 1.0 and is likely to get stronger under Trump 2.0 presidency. As an administration that appears more inclined towards realpolitik, not soft power, there is a likelihood that there will be a demand for and support for securitizing the Quad. If the aim is to counter China’s rise, then the Quad would need to develop hard power – economic and military.
The challenge here will be India as it is the only Quad member that is not a U.S. security ally, India’s stance on securitisation may end up determining the Quad’s future trajectory.
Author Profile
- India Writes Network (www.indiawrites.org) is an emerging think tank and a media-publishing company focused on international affairs & the India Story. Centre for Global India Insights is the research arm of India Writes Network. To subscribe to India and the World, write to editor@indiawrites.org. A venture of TGII Media Private Limited, a leading media, publishing and consultancy company, IWN has carved a niche for balanced and exhaustive reporting and analysis of international affairs. Eminent personalities, politicians, diplomats, authors, strategy gurus and news-makers have contributed to India Writes Network, as also “India and the World,” a magazine focused on global affairs.
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