I
t’s rare to see a head of state/government visiting another country three times in a year and 14 times spanning his tenure. But the India-educated Afghan President Hamid Karzai is no ordinary friend of India, and has come to embody multiple strands that weave the unique tapestry of the age-old India-Afghanistan relations. His forthcoming visit to New Delhi later this week, just ahead of the historic transition in his country, should be, therefore, understood properly in its context that is freighted with possibilities of India making a real difference to the post-2014 Afghanistan.
New role for India
For one thing, Karzai is coming with a clear message that New Delhi, a time-tested friend of Kabul and an emerging power, should expand its role, including in the security domain, in Afghanistan after foreign troops leave that country to navigate its challenges and choices. India’s diplomatic-strategic establishment has been circumspect on upgrading New Delhi’s security role, but latest signals indicate that the calculated ambivalence is incrementally giving way to a clear realisation that all options are on the table and they may have to be exercised sooner rather than later. In his last visit to India, Karzai had presented a long wish list of what India could do to bolster security and counter-terror apparatus of Afghanistan. These proposals, among other things, included deploying Indian military personnel as trainers in a UK-assisted military academy set up in Kabul and sending military hardware, including attack helicopters, to Afghanistan. Mr Karzai’s wish list is now being actively considered and some of these proposals could be brought to fruition sooner rather than later.
Taking on an enhanced security role in Afghanistan, despite conflicted assessments among the Indian establishment, will serve India’s vital national interests in more ways than one. Ahead of the visit, Afghan Ambassador to India Shaida M. Abdali offered an insight into Afghanistan’s expectations about what he called India taking on “a new role” in the post-2014 Afghanistan. “President is coming to India in this crucial period of history to apprise the Indian leadership on the current situation in Afghanistan, ground realities and to think far ahead, given the significance of the ties now, in 2014 and beyond,” said the envoy in New Delhi Dec. 9. “It is imperative for the two countries to cooperate in all areas, including in security and defence. It will definitely be part of discussion as to how we can expedite the process under the strategic partnership agreement, including our request for expansion of cooperation in equipment and so on,” he stressed. Refreshingly, Kabul is realistic about expectations from New Delhi. “We have heard India loudly that India will do anything available within the limits that they have and we fully respect that. We only look at this expansion to come over time and we are satisfied with the progress under the bilateral security agreement,” said the envoy.
Nurturing Democracy
Secondly, there would be intensive discussions on preparations for the Afghan presidential elections expected in April 2014 and the need for bolstering democratic institutions. With months to go before the long-discussed drawdown, Karzai, who is set to make way for his successor after the presidential elections in April 2014, is keen that the foundations of democracy laid over the last decade amid trying circumstances and uncertainties are not undermined through missteps and rash decisions. There is too much at stake, not just for Afghanistan but for the entire region, in ensuring peaceful transition and the continued emergence of a stable, democratic and pluralistic Afghanistan in the transformational decade ahead. And in this process, India has a pivotal role to play.
Nurturing and bolstering democracy and institution-building in Afghanistan, an arduous and incremental process India has supported and encouraged over the years, is of paramount importance. India has not only helped construct the building of the Afghan parliament, but has consistently rooted for strengthening of democratic norms and practices in the neighbouring country. Afghan parliamentarians look at the Indian democracy, with all its exuberant contradictions, as a beacon for the region. Not surprisingly, early this year, 94 out of 102 members of the Upper House of the Afghan Parliament visited India, the world’s most populous democracy, to hone their skills in democratic culture and institution-building. Fittingly, India has conferred on Hamid Karzai the signal honour of addressing both houses of parliament on “Afghanistan’s Experience in Constitutionalism and Democracy: Lessons we take from India”. The democratic promise of Afghanistan must, therefore, be supported at all costs so that the seed that was planted in 2005, when the foundation stone of the new Afghan parliament building was laid, grows into “a sturdy ‘panja chinar’ (tree) of democracy,” in India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s words.
Red Lines
Thirdly, the discussions between the Afghan president and India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are expected to focus on the play of the so-called Taliban reconciliation process. The internal peace process is apparently going nowhere, with Pakistan’s military-political establishment determined to swing it in its favour. India has always looked at the reconciliation process as problematic, but has relented provided the reconciliation strictly adheres to the “red lines” agreed upon by the international community. There is a real danger of political expediency and narrow agendas subverting the thin line between the reconciliable and irreconcilable Taliban.
US-Afghan Deal
Fourth, the Afghan leader is expected to update the Indian leadership about issues coming in the way of the conclusion of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the US. Karzai is insisting that the deal, which envisages the presence of a residual force of 8000 US soldiers in Afghanistan after the drawdown, should be signed only after the Afghan elections and has also made it clear to Washington that the deal could only go ahead if the US agrees to stop raids on Afghan homes by US forces pursuing militants. The US is in no mood to oblige, at least for now. This has created a stalemate of sorts, a cause of concern for New Delhi.
Regional approach
Most important, India and Afghanistan will be looking to map the way forward on firming up a broad-based regional approach that brings in all key regional players in an informal coalition to bolster security and economic rejuvenation of Afghanistan. In this context, there are some positive developments. The interim US-Iran deal has brightened the prospects of enlisting Tehran in the project of stabilising Afghanistan. Washington has, however, some reservation about Tehran’s involvement, but could be open to revising its stance. India and China have begun strategic consultations on Afghanistan as Beijing is becoming more serious about its role in post-2014 Afghanistan given its high economic stakes and the fear that the violence engineered by the Taliban-al Qaeda combine could spill over into the militancy-infested Xinjiang region. India, Russia and Iran, which supported the Northern Alliance that helped dislodge the Mullah Omar regime in 2001, are in active consultation over the evolving situation in Afghanistan.
The Way Ahead: A defining moment
Looking ahead, the next year promises to be a defining moment for India’s foreign policy with the Afghan situation posing tough choices and policy options to New Delhi. The conclusion of the US-Afghanistan BSA should ease some of New Delhi’s worries as it rightly factors in the critical need for the continued presence of US troops, albeit in dramatically reduced numbers, and international assistance as central to security and prosperity of post-2014 Afghanistan. The ongoing rethink on India’s security role in Afghanistan is expected to culminate in more concrete steps that could surprise many.
Most important, New Delhi will have to ensure at all costs that its multifarious reconstruction projects that have spawned a huge reservoir of goodwill for India and Indians in Afghanistan are not rolled back due to security anxieties. India has pledged over $2 billion for the reconstruction of Afghanistan and thousands of Indians have risked their lives in building the Afghan parliament, roads, dams, erecting power transmission lines, digging tubewells and running sanitation projects. Their courage and sacrifice will go in vain in a Talibanised Afghanistan in the grip of a medieval regressive ideology.
India has projected Afghanistan as “a narrative of opportunity,” and a vibrant trade and transportation hub for the entire region. This narrative of hope and resurgence must triumph in the interests of Afghanistan, the larger region and the world.
Author Profile
- Manish Chand is Founder-CEO and Editor-in-Chief of India Writes Network (www.indiawrites.org) and India and World, a pioneering magazine focused on international affairs. He is CEO/Director of TGII Media Private Limited, an India-based media, publishing, research and consultancy company.
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