India’s delays in making its presence felt in Central Asia are a result of Russia’s re-engagement with Central Asian countries, the jaded efforts of the US, particularly after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and China’s energy and connectivity policy.
This is in addition to the unstable political scenario in Pakistan and Afghanistan, which otherwise could well have served as connecting points for India to Central Asia.
India started to look at Central Asian countries last decade for its increasing energy needs. It planned to curb its over-dependency on its hydrocarbon procurement from the Middle East, thereby strengthening its energy security.
In 2005, for instance, then petroleum minister Mani Shankar Aiyar planned to connect non-OPEC Asian oil producers in Central Asia with the energy hungry countries of China, Japan, Korea and India, through creating an Asian energy grid.
India’s efforts were only done in bits and pieces, characterized by an unenthusiastic approach to Central Asian countries.
It was outsmarted by more inclusive players like Russia and China.
Central Asia, which is seen by India as a potential region to explore its wider energy options in the form of hydrocarbons, hydro-electric power and uranium reserves, is apparently slipping out of its hands largely due to the energy stance of other countries which have concerns in the region.
China has clinched $100 billion energy deals with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, dubbing it a “Silk Road Economic Zone” to openly counter the US version of the “New Silk Road” via the oceans, in which India is a major player.
As far as Russia is concerned, its disapproval of India’s planned military presence in the Ayani airbase, built with the support of Tajikistan, is a setback.
The US, which till recently supported India’s effort in its bid to enter Central Asia, through facilitating Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline and Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation programme, along with the Asian Development Bank, has visibly fallen back. And the cascading effect of US withdrawal can be felt in the political economy of Pakistan and Afghanistan and their relationships with India.
But despite these limiting forces, it is not all over for India, and hence the Ministry of External Affairs came out with a new approach in dealing with the situation in Central Asia with its “Connect Central Asia” policy in 2012.
If this policy is followed carefully with adequate institutional mechanism in place and speedy implementation, India would still find a space in the region, without heavily depending on the US.
The idea is to identify the core area for investment in the region and to offer soft loans and other institutional support in addition to striving for clinching energy and infrastructure deals alone with the ultimate objective of enhancing its trade with Central Asia. Non-energy cooperation including cultural diplomacy should go concurrently with India’s energy security efforts.
Pakistan and Afghanistan should not be viewed as a threat but as an opportunity for India to find a gateway to Central Asia through diplomatic means.
Both these countries offer many opportunities both bilaterally and multilaterally through projects like the Central Asia-South Asia electricity transmission and trade project and TAPI, with commercial benefits to all. And if the three work with Iran, International North-South Transport Corridor can also be a viable province.
Finally India’s efforts in gaining influence in this region would be massively simplified if China was no longer seen as its direct competitor in the region.
A common ground of coexistence could be worked out between the two.
(The author is a Junior Fellow with Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)
Courtesy: ORF; The Global Times, Beijing
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