Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trip to Bhutan (June 15-16) will be an opportunity to renew the special India-Buutan ties and cement economic and strategic ties between the two countries, says Prof. S.D. Muni, a well-known South Asia specialist and Distinguished Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). In this wide-ranging conversation with Manish Chand, Editor-in-Chief, India Writes Network (www.indiawrites.org), Prof. Muni speaks about the growing Chinese influence in Bhutan and contends that the forthcoming prime ministerial visit should be used to discuss with Thimphu the latter’s ties with Beijing in the spirit of special partnership between India and Bhutan.
Q) Prof. Muni, How do you look at the importance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to Bhutan, and why do you think he chose Bhutan as his first overseas trip?
A) Bhutan is one of our smallest neighbours and it is one of the closest neighbours. Closest, because we haven’t had any major issues between India and Bhutan. Cooperation has always been smooth and people in Bhutan are very understanding of India’s concerns. In 2003, the Bhutanese agreed to coordinate the military operations to flush out some of the terrorists who had gone and taken shelter in Bhutan. Bhutan is a country that is sitting on massive reserves of hydropower and they are very willingly sharing hydropower with us. We are trying to share all our technical and skilled knowledge with Bhutan, giving them assistance also as far as possible and assuring them that if anything happens to them India will stand by them whether it’s a matter of security or internal trouble. Therefore, Bhutan is one of our closest neighbours. You would recall when Foreign Secretary Mrs Sujata Singh took over, she also started foreign trips with Bhutan.
Q) Is this part of putting neigbourhood first in India’s foreign policy?
A) Neighbourhood first was indicated by this government at the very inaugural ceremony, when they invited all the SAARC countries, including Mauritius, which are our close neighbours. So yes, this is a priority if we want to play a bigger role in the region and the world. There are people who at times dispute that neighbours can’t satisfy our economic need, or we can only have a limited cooperation with them but this is all a very fragile and weak argument because if you are not on board with the neighbours, the world outside would not really recognise you as an important global player. If you are not even a regional leader, how can you be a global leader? If you are in trouble with your neighbours, others will come and exploit it, which they have done. For example, the India-Pakistan relationship has been exploited by outside powers for a very long time. Unless you have cohesion and harmony in neighbourhood, perhaps your foreign policy will always feel constrained.
Q) As you pointed out, the India- Bhutan relationship is indeed exemplary. In this backdrop, how do you look at the growing Chinese influence in Bhutan?
A) It is a harmonious relationship but the developmental patterns are changing. Butan is still not very strongly industrialised. They have power. Bhutan, as you know, is either the first or second richest country in South Asia in terms of per capita income. Bhutanese are very small in number, but they are aspiring people and looking for modernisation as far as possible in every sector of economy where India can come forward and help them .The second issue which I am sure which will come up when Mr Modi visits is the question of how Butan relates itself to China. There has been tremendous pressure from the Chinese side to settle the Bhutan-China boundary and the Chinese are saying we cannot sign a boundary agreement with you unless you have diplomatic relations with us and allow us to set up an embassy in Thimphu. Now if that happens, then obviously the Chinese influence in this sensitive Himalayan kingdom would grow and the Bhutanese are still very careful because some of the border issues have not been sorted out fully. They have sorted out some of the issues, but not all of it fully and this is an issue where consultation between India and Bhutan has been going on and probably can take a critical turn with Mr. Modi’s visit. They would ask Mr. Modi to what extent, how far, how fast they can go to establish relationship with China without ruffling rough feathers in New Delhi. So that’s a critical issue.
Q) In what way China’s expanding economic footprint in Bhutan pose a threat to India’s vital interests and our special relationship with Bhutan?
A) I would not say it’s a threat. I would say it’s a challenge because India has been very sensitive to preserving its own strategic space in the immediate neighbourhood, particularly those countries where security interests are very critical like Nepal, Bhutan, and to some extent Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Myanmar and also Pakistan, but Pakistan comes in a different category. Therefore, we have always tried to keep a very strong strategic presence and decision-makers in India have always felt that any other country from outside, particularly adversarial country or a competitive country would erode this strategic space. That’s what the issue is and I look at this as a challenge. Now this is a challenge because China, as you mentioned rightly, is economically emerging as a very strong Asian country and a strong global power. They have money that they want to invest around. They have money which they can afford to lend people for assistance, particularly in infrastructural projects. If they want to develop their own periphery like Yunnan and Tibet, then they have to seek access to the countries both in Southeast Asia and South Asia, which they are frantically trying to do. They want to link Nepal with Tibet by a train. They have roads very close to the Bhutanese border. South Asia as a region is home to 1.6 billion people. This is a huge market which the rising Chinese economy simply cannot ignore. Therefore, they would like to come into South Asia and if they want to come into South Asia India has to deal with it. Now, how India deals with it is a matter of challenge whereas china needs the market in Southeast Asia and we also want to integrate the South Asian markets with that of India. We have had these connectivity projects which are going very slow. The Chinese move very fast and that impresses all the neighbours. Therefore, you have to work out a modus operandi with the Chinese as to what are the deadlines from theirs and our point of view. If they come very deeply into South Asia, would they let India, for instance, to go and invest in Tibet and Xinjiang or Yunnan, in a big way? Perhaps, yes; perhaps no. I think the challenge is both economic as well as strategic because the economic presence leads to your strategic clout. I don’t see it as a threat as the Chinese would not militarily march into India or to Bhutan or Nepal. In this missile age and cyber security, one doesn’t have to cross territories in one way or the other.
Q) This whole narrative of China’s growing influence in the entire South Asia and the construction of a string of pearls theory — how much of it is grounded in facts or is it overblown?
A) China would like to come economically in South Asia, no doubt about it. China would also like to come strategically in South Asia. I don’t even rule that out because a lot of Chinese trade goes via the Indian Ocean. This whole notion that the Chinese are seeking the so-called string of pearls is actually a phrase that came out of Pentagon. To a very large extent, the Chinese came to it defensively. They know they have a Malacca strait dilemma. All their trade that is passing through the Malacca Strait can be stopped by the Americans or by any other power. It can be disturbed. That is the reason they sought Myanmar and development in Chittagong and anchoring space in Sri Lanka. In strategic calculation, if you have a facility you can always use it for different purposes. If you have a commercial facility, it takes very little to convert it into naval facility. If there are roads that can carry your trade, they can also carry your army. Therefore, the strategic planners don’t take these things benignly, they take note of it. You can come with benign intent, but use it for adversarial purposes. Policy makers will have to continue to grapple with this situation. I see these facilities as essentially commercial at the moment.
Q) How do you look at India’s relationship with Bhutan in context of harmonious and cemented relationship, cultural relationship and India’s effort in modernizing Bhutan leading to rise in aspiration curves?
A) India has always engaged with Bhutan to modernize it. For example, India has assisted in the fields of electricity power generation and their food processing industry. Bhutan is a great tourist attraction and the Bhutanese regulate their tourism in a very significant way. The Bhutanese have a different notion of happiness and they “value gross national happiness” over gross national product which lies in its spiritual satisfaction. Their concept of modernization is different than ours. We should let the Bhutanese decide what their framework of modernization is and what should be the pace of their modernization and India should extend help in whatever way possible.
Q) What are the new areas where M. Modi will be looking to galvanize the relationship further?
A)It will be a feel good trip to renew India’s commitment to Bhutan. The hydropower sector is becoming more expensive with gas turbines coming in and the Bhutanese economy depends very largely on hydropower revenues. They have their currency tied to India. Bhutan will have to find out other sources of revenue whether it is timber or forest or to allow more tourism to earn more money. This can be one area of economic cooperation between the two countries. The others are strategic, in as much as the China issue needs to be settled. We have already revised the treaty with Bhutan. Bhutan has assured that they will remain very friendly to us and very sensitive to our concerns.
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