The leaders of the US and China are looking to re-define terms of engagement amid dissonance on an array of issues ranging from cyber-attacks and trade deficit and firm up a template for building the world’s most critical relationship over the next decade.
With so much at stake between the world’s two largest economies, US President Barack Obama is poised for a headline-grabbing meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a 200-acre sprawling estate in California. The choice of the venue, away from the feverish buzz of the Beltway Washington, is significant as California is home to more than a third of the China-born population in the US.
Trust Deficit
Many old festering issues, which have sharpened trust deficit between the two countries, are expected to be on the table. Among other issues, currency manipulation, trade imbalance, cyber theft, trade and investment and the North Korea crisis are expected to top the agenda. Obama and Xi are hoping to strike a personal rapport and will be looking to gauge each other’s attitude towards building a stronger China-US relationship.
The summit has acquired an added resonance as this will be the first meeting between the leaders of the world’s powerful democracy and the single-party state after the leadership transitions in their countries. The California summit will be watched keenly in world capitals, including in New Delhi which has been suspected by Beijing as part of a China containment strategy.
For China, the top priority will be to get the US to accept it as a rising power and a co-equal in creating a balanced world order. Re-calibrating relations with the US is the single most important foreign policy challenge for the new Chinese leadership. China is looking at forging “a new kind of special relationship” or “a new inter-power relationship” with the US.
It’s economics, stupid!
With their economies intertwined, the US and China will be looking to find workable ways to manage their differences and expand areas of convergence in the common pursuit of quicker global economic recovery. This economic interdependence is only set to increase in a decade. In 2020-2022, the China-US trade, according to a report, is going to be more than $1.5 trillion. Cumulative Chinese investments in the US over the last decade have exceeded $50 billion. Moreover, with shrinking opportunities at home, the cash-rich Chinese companies are looking to spread their net in the US.
A New Starting Point?
The Chinese media, mostly state-controlled, has conjured up an optimistic picture of the trajectory of the China-US ties.
Xinhua, China’s official news agency, and People’s Daily, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, have struck an upbeat note. The Chinese media outlets say that the Sino-US relations are at a “new historical starting point” and the meeting will be an “opportunity to outline a blueprint for building a new great powers relationship” that is not based on confrontation between an established power and a rising power.
“China is approaching the US in terms of national strength. This will also be among the most significant factors that impact international politics in the future,” says the influential Global Times. “The question of whether the two countries will step out of the box and create a new era of peaceful competition instead of tragic confrontation has become a major test for both countries and even the rest of the world.”
Cyber war
Against the backdrop of strategic distrust emanating from adversarial posturing in the Asia-Pacific region, Obama and Xi are expected to address issues related to the ongoing cyber cold war. The US has accused Chinese hackers of infiltrating the computer systems of top-billing American corporations, such as Coca Cola and EMC. A war of words has erupted. The two countries have gone back and forth; each accusing the other of being the worst offender when it comes to digital misdeeds. The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times have run extensive reports on attacks against their publications that, they allege, emanated from hackers in China. The head of China’s Internet security agency said recently that he has “mountains of data” to demonstrate that hackers in the U.S. have targeted his country, Reuters reported. Ahead of Xi’s visit, three members of Congress said they would introduce a bill to punish hackers who received support from the government of China or other foreign countries.
Power Games
The California summit takes place amid subtle shifts in the balance of power – the 2008 recession has undermined the US’ economic pre-eminence and China’s slowest growth in a decade has posed fresh challenges for the new Chinese leadership.
In this renewed contest for power, the overwhelming question is whether China would let the US take the lead or would pitch itself as the new leader of an emerging world order. Having a balanced relationship with the US, relatively free of frictions, is important for the new Chinese leadership to achieve the larger decadal goals of economic and social transformation, says a Chinese analyst, who did not wish to be named.
Author Profile
- Manish Chand is Founder-CEO and Editor-in-Chief of India Writes Network (www.indiawrites.org) and India and World, a pioneering magazine focused on international affairs. He is CEO/Director of TGII Media Private Limited, an India-based media, publishing, research and consultancy company.
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