As the United States approaches Election Day on November 5, 2024, the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent history. Recent polling data indicates a virtual tie between the two candidates nationwide, with Ms. Harris holding a slight edge in some polls but within the margin of error in most cases.
According to the latest national polling averages from FiveThirtyEight, Ms. Harris has a slim lead over Mr. Trump, garnering 48.5% support from likely voters compared to Mr. Trump’s 47.6%. Similarly, a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump 47% to 44% in Iowa, a state that Mr. Trump won by a significant margin in 2020. This shift underscores how even traditionally Republican-leaning states have become highly competitive this election cycle.
The race is equally tight in critical battleground states. A Marist College poll shows Ms. Harris leading by 3 points in Michigan, 2 points in Pennsylvania, and another 2 points in Wisconsin. However, polls are not consistent across the board: an Echelon Insights survey, for instance, puts Mr. Trump up by 5 points in Pennsylvania, highlighting the variability in polling across the country. These swings in key states are making predictions increasingly challenging for analysts.
Demographically, the electorate is starkly divided. Ms. Harris has strong support among younger voters and women, while Mr. Trump is favoured by older voters and men. A Leger poll conducted for the New York Post reflects this demographic divide, showing both candidates with equal support at 49% among likely voters. Such a close split across demographics underscores the polarized nature of this election, with each candidate resonating strongly within specific voter blocs. The uncertainty in this election is further compounded by forecasting models. Nate Silver’s latest forecast from FiveThirtyEight gives Mr. Trump a slight edge, with a 51.5% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Ms. Harris’s 48.1%. FiveThirtyEight’s own model presents a similarly close outcome, assigning Mr. Trump a 53 out of 100 chance of winning, with Ms. Harris at 46 out of 100. These models illustrate how unpredictable the final results may be, as they rely heavily on voter turnout in key states where margins are razor-thin.
With Election Day imminent, the contest between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump remains remarkably close, reflecting a deeply divided electorate. The ultimate outcome will likely hinge on turnout, especially in swing states where just a few percentage points could determine the next U.S. president.
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