Taking a long-range view of their bilateral relations, prone to prickliness, India and China have managed to resolve the three-week impasse over the incursion incident through intense diplomacy, but the issue is set to shadow Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to New Delhi.
In New Delhi, frenzied speculation continues to swirl about the last-minute deal-making that led to the resolution of the sensitive issue that put the India-China relationship under severe stress in the last few weeks.
While the details of give-and-take that went into arriving at a compromise mid-way formula will remain a secret, what one can make out is that pragmatism won over posturing, at least for now.
The incursion of Chinese troops 19 km deep inside the Indian territory in Ladakh April 15, and their repeated refusal to budge despite repeated diplomatic pressure from New Delhi, showed that there was a bigger design behind the Chinese move. Informed speculation in New Delhi suggest that India’s foreign office, after initially downplaying the incursion, toughened its spine and made it clear that the refusal to restore status quo ante by Chinese troops in Ladakh will have serious repercussions on bilateral relations.
New Delhi also reportedly threatened to cancel the visit of India’s Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid to Beijing and the Chinese premier’s forthcoming trip to New Delhi. In fact, one can safely say that the desire to salvage Li’s New Delhi trip and the larger construct of “India and China are partners, not rivals” goaded both sides to get the issue out of the way so that they can focus on the win-win picture of cooperation during Premier Li’s visit- the first time a Chinese leader is visiting India within months of the decadal leadership transition in Beijing.
Playing the diplomatic hardball seems to have worked for the time being, but the incursion has underlined dangers of such adventurism and the need for intensifying strategic communication to resolve the larger boundary issue – the fountainhead of deeper tensions in India-China ties.
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