Behind PM Modi’s Balochistan gamble: Shift in India’s foreign policy?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech from the ramparts of the Red Fort, on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of Indian independence, has drawn wide attention for his comments on Pakistan although he made no direct reference to the country. He drew a contrast between India’s belief in human values, as illustrated in the widespread grief in India at the massacre of innocent schoolchildren in Peshawar, with the “other side which glorifies terrorists”. He invited India’s neighbours to jointly fight poverty and not “destroy ourselves” by fighting our own people.
As Pakistan is accusing India of fomenting trouble in Baluchistan and POK, it is quite conceivable that it would apply its full template for raising military tension on the border and intensify cross-border terrorism in J&K; we hardly need reminding ourselves that this template, backed by nuclear weapons capability, constitutes Pakistan’s grand strategy towards India. One can envisage greater Pakistan-inspired terrorism in other parts of the country. Pakistan may even aim to escalate the border tension, involving the two armed forces, with the objective of drawing in great power intercession as it had tried during the Kargil conflict. The new Indian strategy assumes a certain risk but aims to apply calibrated pressure on Pakistani policy-makers and making them realise the adverse strategic situation they are in.