Diplomacy

Pakistan’s ‘spy’ gimmick portends another bleak year for India-Pakistan ties

- by Shweta Aggarwal

The India-Pakistan relations, which plunged to a new low in the aftermath of the 2016 terror strikes allegedly masterminded by Pakistan-based terrorists, look set to continue in the mode of mutual recriminations and distrust in 2017, with hardly any possibility of a thaw in the near term. Islamabad’s latest gambit to internationalise the issue of alleged Indian spy Kulbhushan Jadhav by seeking to present a dossier before the UN on the alleged terrorist activities of Jadhav portends another bleak year for the severely challenged India-Pakistan relations.
Typical of Pakistan’s posturing, double-speak and grandstanding, Islamabad appears to be in no mood to prosecute Pakistan-based terrorists involved in the Pathankot and Uri terror attacks in India in 2016. Instead, in a latest salvo, Pakistan has claimed it’s a direct victim of Indian “state-sponsored terrorism” and claimed that Jadhav’s activities were aimed at destabilising Pakistan and slaughtering Pakistani nationals. “With such duplicitous behaviour and blood on its hands, India has little credibility on counter-terrorism,” said the spokesperson of Pakistan’s Foreign Office.
With Pakistan in denial, the Modi government is set to be more assertive on cross-border terrorism. The political dynamics involved in a series of state elections to be held this year in India will further complicate the picture as PM Modi and his colleagues in the party are set to flaunt the cross-LOC surgical strikes against Pakistani militants to mobilise nationalist sentiments against the perpetrator of terror. In such a scenario, if there is another terror attack in India in which the Pakistani involvement is established, then the India-Pakistan ties are set to go from bad to worse. It’s early days, but latest indications suggest that 2017 is going to be another grim year for the India-Pakistan relations.

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Trumped! Putin’s ‘smart’ diplomacy fuels hopes for US-Russia reset

- by Manish Chand

Fuelling hopes of a reset in the strained US-Russia relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shunned a tit-for-tat response to the Obama administration’s decision to impose new sanctions and expel 35 Russian diplomats. Mr Putin’s “smart” response has elicited praise from US President-elect Donald Trump, who is expected to ease frosty relations between Moscow and Washington after he takes charge as the leader of the world’s most powerful nation on January 20.
“Great move on delay (by V. Putin),” Mr Trump, known to be an admirer of the Russian leader, said on the microblogging site Twitter on December 30. “I always knew he was very smart!”
Mr Putin’s smart restraint indicates his calculation that the new US President-elect will walk the talk during his campaign speeches about improving the febrile US-Russia relations, leading to an eventual lifting of the onerous US sanctions which have badly mauled the Russian economy.
The improved Russia-US relations bode well for India, which has close strategic relations with both countries. Moscow has reacted with suspicion to what it sees as the growing strategic nexus between New Delhi and Washington. India is betting on better relations between Washington and Moscow as the US sanctions have impacted New Delhi’s efforts to upgrade economic ties with Russia. If the US-Russia thaw becomes real under Trump’s watch, it will be good news for India as it will pave the stage for acceleration of India’s relations with its two foremost partners, US and Russia, without either relationship becoming a zero sum game.

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As Trump Fumbles on China Policy, Here Is Some Advice

- by India Writes Network

In a time of social media frenzy and popular zeal for immediate news, many comments about President-elect Donald Trump seem to focus on his team-building and policy formulation. Important as they are, the Chinese should not dance to Mr Trump’s tune but look for proactive shaping, creative initiatives and possible alternatives. Therefore, I would like to give the following five pieces of advice to President-elect Trump for maintaining peace and prosperity of the world in general and stable, win-win China-US relations in particular.
First of all, President-elect Trump should move along with instead of against the trends of our times. The re-configuration of powers between the United States and the other major players is one of most significant developments today. Second, President-elect Trump should truly understand his mandate and know his limits.
Third, President-elect Trump should learn to deal with intricate and complex global affairs. Fourth, President-elect Trump should have integrated thoughts on its strategy and policy towards China. Last but not least, President-elect Trump should differentiate geo-strategic commitments and economic engagements.
China believes that cooperation is the only correct choice for the China-US relations. With its usual thinking and practice, China exercises self-restraint and gives more time to President Trump to learn the importance of the China-US relations and practice accordingly. However, the internal and external developments will not wait too long. Therefore, President-elect Trump must truly realise the urgency of managing US-China relations in a constructive manner.

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Russia, Turkey inch closer in anti-terror solidarity after envoy’s killing

- by India Writes Network

The cold-blooded assassination of the Russian ambassador to Turkey by a rage-driven off-duty police officer has put spotlight on the new face of terror in the region, with Moscow declaring a war on terrorists and their co-conspirators.
The assassin, who has been identified as police officer Mevlut Mert Altintas, shouted “revenge” for the Russian offensive in Aleppo, imbuing the dramatic killing of Russian envoy Andry Karlov at an art exhibition in the Turkish capital on Dec 19 with political and ideological colouring. The assassination had initially sparked off anxieties about Russia-Turkish confrontation, but the two countries have so far managed to contain the damage, and in a deft diplomatic tightrope walk have gone ahead with the trilateral meeting of foreign ministers of Russia, Turkey and Iran on the Aleppo situation.
If the aim of the assassin and his backers were to put Moscow and Ankara on a warpath, it seems that it was a wasted game as both countries have shown solidarity in the face of terror and have resorted to conspiracy theories. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Mr Putin over the killing of Karlov and stressed that the two leaders had agreed that “our cooperation and solidarity fighting terrorism should be even stronger”.

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With China on mind, India, Indonesia firm up maritime nexus

- by Manish Chand

With an eye on China, India and Indonesia, Asia’s most populous democracies and emerging powers, have firmed up a blueprint for enhancing maritime cooperation and resolved to jointly combat terror. In a calculated move that is set to antagonise Beijing, India has backed Indonesia on the latter’s escalating dispute with China on territorial claims in South China Sea.
The talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo in New Delhi on December 12 have culminated in an ambitious joint statement to upscale strategic partnership, with concrete plans for expanding bilateral defence and maritime cooperation. The first visit by Jokowi, as the Indonesian president is popularly known in his country, to India has been closely watched in China, which looks at India’s attempts to forge closer strategic ties with ASEAN countries as part of its calibrated containment strategy.
China was the elephant in the room when PM Modi and his Indonesian counterpart held talks in the Indian capital as both India and Indonesia count China as their largest trading partner, but have unease about Beijing’s hegemonistic intentions. Managing the China challenge without getting into the containment trap is a shared concern for both countries.
The talks rightly prioritised expanding defence and security cooperation as a core priority to actualise the full potential of this sub-optimal relationship. “As two important maritime nations that are also neighbours, we agreed to cooperate to ensure the safety and security of the sea lanes, in disaster response and environmental protection,” said Mr Modi.
Another important takeaway from the latest round of high-profile engagement between the leaders of India and Indonesia was a convergence of positions on terrorism that thrives on sanctuaries provided by states with vested interests.
This strategic concord between Asia’s emerging economies on issues of terrorism and South China Sea is a signal to China that there is not much room for ambivalence and sent a message to the region that the entire Asian hemisphere benefits from a collective approach to regional security.

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