KUALA LUMPUR: India’s Act East policy, enunciated with vigour and vision by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is set to acquire greater force and traction during his November 21-24 visit to Malaysia and Singapore that includes participation in the twin ASEAN and East Asia summits as well as a string of bilateral engagements.
This is the second time Mr Modi will be participating in the ASEAN/East Asia summits, and therefore one can expect him to unveil concrete plans and initiatives to scale up India’s relations with this economically vibrant and strategic region in virtually all areas.
Context
Amid the slowdown in the world’s second largest economy and China wariness in large parts of the region, Mr Modi has a unique opportunity to invest the India-ASEAN relations with greater economic and strategic content. Malaysia, the chair of ASEAN and EAS, has pulled out all stops to ensure substantive summits, with tangible outcomes that will shape the course of economic integration and help evolve an inclusive regional security architecture amid a host of emerging traditional and non-traditional security threats. Being the world’s largest democracy and one of its fastest growing economies, India’s contribution to fructifying the overarching vision of ASEAN Economic Community 2015 will be watched keenly.
Remaking of India
With his larger project of national resurgence on mind, Prime Minister Modi will be looking to leverage synergies with the region across the spectrum and explore tangible ways in which Southeast Asian countries can link up with India’s development agenda, as reflected in interlinked programmes of Make in India, Digital India and the Smart Cities mission. With India’s burgeoning infrastructure hungry for more foreign investment, business will be predictably high on the agenda. ASEAN is India’s fourth largest trading partner, with bilateral trade estimated to be around USD 77 billion in 2014-15. India and ASEAN have targeted the bilateral trade of USD 200 billion by 2022, but if this ambition has to be realised, the two sides need to redouble their energies to make FTA in services and investments work.
The ratification of the FTA by all ASEAN countries is a prerequisite to realising the full potential of India-ASEAN economic relations. Similarly, faster decision-making is essential to upscale the two-way investment. Currently, FDI inflows into India from ASEAN are estimated at USD 32.4 billion, while the outflows from India to ASEAN stood at USD 36.8 billion as of 2014. Doubling investment flow from the region to $60 billion in the next 2-3 years is not all that difficult provided the Modi government walk the talk on reforms and ease of doing business in the country.
In the context of regional economic integration, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement is a game-changer, and this time round one can expect more purposeful negotiations to conclude the treaty by 2016. India’s enthusiasm for RCEP has gone up after the sealing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which is sure to impact investment flows into India in days to come.
Only Connect
Mr Modi will, therefore, be pushing for fast-tracking RCEP and also pledge India’s commitment to a host of connectivity projects, which will impact visibly economic fortunes of the region. In this context, India plans to set up a facility for project financing and quick implementation of connectivity projects with ASEAN, whereby industry could receive government support for investments in physical and digital connectivity projects with the ASEAN region. India is also expected to push for fast-tracking the completion of the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway by the end of 2016 or beginning of 2017. The plan to extend the trilateral highway to Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia is also expected to be announced during the summit.
Think Strategic
The economic and connectivity projects will be high on the agenda, but the real action in Kuala Lumpur will be in the realm of deepening security and strategic cooperation. In the aftermath of the Paris terror attacks and reports of people from Indonesia and Malaysia joining the Islamic State, India and the extended East Asia region will be looking to deepen counter-terror cooperation through intelligence sharing.
Cyber security will be another focus area, with internet population and digitisation of economies of India and ASEAN growing by the day. One can expect India to unveil new plans to assist ASEAN countries in training and upgradation of cyber security infrastructure.
All eyes will be, however, on the ongoing churn in South China Sea and the progress in achieving a code of conduct between China and ASEAN states, which are party to the festering dispute. India can be expected to pitch strongly for freedom of navigation and resolution of the dispute in accordance with the UNCLOS. “We always ask for a speedy conclusion and implementation of the declaration of code of conduct in the South China Sea. So, we are looking forward to a conclusion of a document between ASEAN and China on this issue as soon as possible,” said Anil Wadhwa, Secretary (East) in India’s external affairs ministry ahead of the prime ministerial visit.
The Way Ahead
Broadly speaking, the forthcoming twin summits are set to signal an upsurge in India’s deepening engagement with the extended East Asian region and bring the two regions in a tighter economic and strategic embrace. Looking ahead, Culture, Commerce and Creativity will form the trinity that will frame India’s multifarious engagement with the region, which will prove to be pivotal to the flowering of the dream of an Asian Century. It’s time for India’s Asian Dream to fly, and touch new horizons.
Author Profile
- Manish Chand is Founder-CEO and Editor-in-Chief of India Writes Network (www.indiawrites.org) and India and World, a pioneering magazine focused on international affairs. He is CEO/Director of TGII Media Private Limited, an India-based media, publishing, research and consultancy company.
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