Trump 2.0: Rewriting the Script for US-India Relations

Donald Trump’s resounding electoral victory marked a pivotal shift in global geopolitics. This landmark win, bolstered by the strong backing of Indian Americans and Hindu Americans, heralded a new era in America’s domestic and international policies. Shalabh Salil Kumar, a prominent industrialist, philanthropist, and conservative commentator, delves into the transformative implications of Trump’s return to the White House, emphasizing the realignment of US priorities in the global order, particularly concerning China and India, says Shalabh Kumar.

The political preferences of Indian Americans, particularly Hindu Americans, have undergone a significant transformation over recent election cycles. In 2016, 65% of this demographic voted for Donald Trump, reflecting a growing alignment with conservative values. By 2024, support had reached unprecedented levels, signaling a profound shift in sentiment. Edison, New Jersey—a town with a large Indian American population—is a microcosm of this broader trend. Once a hub of debate and scepticism toward Trump in 2016, it has become a bastion of support, with many voters firmly rejecting Democratic candidates like Kamala Harris.

This evolution can be attributed to several factors. Disillusionment with progressive policies played a central role, as many Indian Americans felt alienated by the Left’s focus on identity politics and perceived overreach in cultural and economic matters. Economic concerns, particularly rampant inflation and skyrocketing grocery prices, further eroded trust in Democratic leadership. Additionally, a perceived decline in America’s global standing—exemplified by the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and unchecked border crossings—fueled dissatisfaction. These challenges, coupled with Trump’s strong stance on national security, economic growth, and his outreach to the Indian diaspora, resonated deeply, resulting in a dramatic realignment of voter preferences within this influential community.

Immediate Policy Changes Under Trump’s Administration

Here is what the world can anticipate in the early months of 2025. Trump’s agenda will see a decisive shift in domestic and foreign policy priorities, focusing on immigration control, economic revitalization, and reasserting America’s strength on the global stage.

One of the administration’s top priorities is securing the US-Mexico border. This involves ramping up enforcement measures to prevent illegal immigration, which has seen an estimated 200,000 crossings per month in recent years. The plan includes the immediate arrest and deportation of individuals entering the country unlawfully, signaling a return to strict immigration policies. This approach aims to address concerns about national security, economic strain, and the perceived erosion of legal pathways to citizenship.

Second, Trump plans to withdraw the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. The administration has consistently criticized the agreement as ineffective in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and funding of terrorism. The withdrawal signals a return to maximum pressure through sanctions and diplomatic isolation, intending to force Iran back to the negotiating table on more favorable terms. This policy reflects a broader commitment to combating state-sponsored terrorism and ensuring the security of US allies in the Middle East, particularly Israel. Military action remains a possibility if hostages held by Iran-backed groups are not released promptly.

The revival of the Keystone XL pipeline is central to Trump’s plan to achieve energy independence and reduce consumer energy costs. By restarting this long-contested project, the administration aims to enhance domestic oil production and decrease reliance on foreign energy imports. The pipeline is projected to create thousands of jobs, bolster local economies, and lower fuel prices for consumers. Critics of the pipeline have raised environmental concerns, but proponents argue that advanced technologies and regulations can mitigate ecological risks while providing significant economic benefits.

Economic policies under the Trump administration will focus on revitalizing American manufacturing by imposing tariffs on imports from key trade partners. China, for instance, could face up to 40% tariffs on goods, alongside the revocation of its Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. These measures are designed to curtail China’s economic dominance and incentivize companies to relocate supply chains to the US or allied nations. Similarly, Mexico faces the prospect of a 25% tariff unless it strengthens cooperation on border security and trade fairness. By leveraging tariffs and fostering favorable conditions for domestic industries, the administration envisions a resurgence of American manufacturing, job creation, and sustained economic growth. These policies collectively aim to restore America’s global leadership, strengthen national security, and empower American workers, setting the stage for a transformative term.

The US-China-India Nexus

China poses an existential threat to both the US and India. This is a central theme in my upcoming book XXXX, where I delve into this issue in detail.

China’s long-term ambitions are clear, and it is not shy in its pursuit of what it calls the “rejuvenation of China”—a plan to reshape the global order. Currently, China’s navy has already surpassed that of the US, and by 2049, its GDP is projected to reach $58 trillion, a dramatic increase from its current $18.27 trillion. Meanwhile, the US economy is expected to be around $32 trillion unless significant changes are made to manufacturing. As a result, China’s economy will be twice as large as that of the US, and its military strength will also be far superior. This stark reality underscores the core message of my book. India, while growing rapidly, will still lag behind China in terms of economic size and will continue to face China’s expansionist and aggressive tactics.

Though these threats are often couched within diplomatic language, their implications are clear. Consider, for instance, the Chinese ownership of ports in Sri Lanka and their increasing influence in Pakistan, such as the port of Karachi. Pakistan is on the path to becoming the next Sri Lanka due to its increasing dependence on China. India, though a global powerhouse in software, still relies heavily on Chinese imports, particularly in electronics. This dependency must be addressed. To counter China’s growing influence, it is essential to bring manufacturing back to the US and shift production that cannot be relocated to allied nations like India. This is the only way to challenge the rising Chinese dragon. To achieve this, collaboration between the US and India is not only feasible but crucial. My book outlines the creation of an “electronic city” in India—an area free from bureaucratic interference—to attract manufacturing investments and reduce reliance on China. This strategic partnership could be key to reshaping global supply chains and ensuring a balanced, secure economic future.

Bridging the US-India Trust Deficit

While there has been a historic trust deficit between US and Indian leadership, a renewed Trump administration offers a unique opportunity to foster greater collaboration and rebuild trust. By prioritizing reliable defense partnerships, the US can demonstrate its commitment to India’s security, addressing critical concerns such as delays in technology transfers like GE aircraft engines for India’s Tejas program. Simultaneously, resolving tariff disputes and expanding trade opportunities will strengthen economic ties. These efforts could pave the way for a comprehensive bilateral free trade agreement by 2027, enhancing cooperation across industries and solidifying the partnership. With focused diplomacy and mutual commitment, the US and India can counter global threats and champion shared democratic values. However, the most fundamental change that will have a dramatic impact globally is Elon Musk’s plan as head of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) to eliminate $200 billion in annual bureaucratic spending. This reduction in federal expenditures will decrease the need for government borrowing, leading to lower interest rates, reduced treasury yields, and a booming stock market. Lower taxes, fueled by this fiscal efficiency, will further stimulate economic growth, potentially adding 1-2% to GDP annually. This streamlined approach will create more secure jobs for Americans, boosting federal tax revenues. Additionally, the government will offer greater tax incentives to encourage American companies to repatriate manufacturing and create domestic jobs. European and Asian economies, including India, are likely to emulate this model for sustained prosperity.

A Global MEGA Movement

The worldwide influence of the “Make America Great Again” (MEGA) movement has the potential to inspire decades of peace and prosperity as nations adopt and emulate the policies championed under Trump’s leadership. This vision extends beyond national borders, advocating for a global realignment centered on economic growth, national security, and individual freedoms. India, with its shared democratic values and dynamic economy, is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping this new global order.

By fostering deeper collaboration, the US and India can lead the charge against authoritarian threats, ensuring a stable, prosperous future rooted in freedom and mutual respect. The new Trump administration must start the ground running—motivated, prepared, and equipped with the right leadership to take action. With focused management and a clear strategy, the US and India have the potential to forge a free trade bilateral agreement by the end of 2027.

(Shalabh Salil Kumar is an inventor, industrialist, and philanthropist, serving as chairman and CEO of the AVG Group of Companies. A staunch conservative and grassroots leader, Kumar has been a prominent voice in US-South Asia relations. As the founder of the Republican Hindu Coalition and a key figure in the Indian American political landscape, he has been instrumental in strengthening ties between the US and India, famously coining the slogan “Ab ki Baar Trump Sarkar.”)

(This article has been published in the special edition of India and the World magazine focused on India-US relations.)

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